生猪市场周报：市场供应充足，生猪偏弱震荡-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, the live hog price fluctuated at a low level, with the main contract 2605 down 0.09% for the week. The selling sentiment of the breeding end has increased, accelerating the slaughter rhythm. Combining the sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, the supply in the near - term is sufficient. Although there are intermittent entries in the second - fattening, the overall sentiment is weak and the attitude is cautious, with limited effect on alleviating the supply. On the demand side, the demand has entered the off - season, the terminal consumption is rigid, and the slaughter enterprises may maintain the current level with small fluctuations or even a slight reduction, with limited support for the price. Overall, the situation of oversupply in the market continues, putting pressure on the live hog price. However, because the price is at a low level and there is an expectation of capacity reduction, the decline pace has slowed down, and the live hog price will mainly fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the entry dynamics of second - fattening and capital flow on the price [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market performance: The live hog price fluctuated at a low level this week, and the main contract 2605 was down 0.09% for the week [8][12]. - Market outlook: The supply in the near - term is sufficient. The second - fattening has limited effect on alleviating the supply. The demand is in the off - season, and the support for the price is limited. The oversupply situation continues, but the decline pace of the price has slowed down, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the entry dynamics of second - fattening and capital flow [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The futures price bottomed out and fluctuated this week, and the main contract 2605 was down 0.09% for the week [12]. - Net position and warehouse receipts: As of March 13, the net short position of the top 20 long - short positions in live hog futures increased by 7949 lots to 59292 lots compared with last week, and the number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1133, a decrease of 17 lots compared with the previous week [18]. - Contract spread: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts was - 1195, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts was - 2015 [24]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Base difference: The base difference of the March contract this week was - 80 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the May contract was - 1050 yuan/ton [28]. - Live hog and piglet prices: The average national live hog market price this week was 10.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.36 yuan/kg compared with last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 27.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.62 yuan/kg compared with last week [38]. - Pork and sow prices: On March 12, the national pork market price was 16.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.38 yuan/kg compared with the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.45 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with the previous week [45]. - Pig - grain ratio: As of the week of February 11, 2026, the pig - grain ratio was 5.5, a decrease of 0.18 compared with the previous week, still below 6:1 [49]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Sow inventory: In December 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, equivalent to 101.56% of the normal inventory, in the green area. According to Mysteel data, in February, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month, and the inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.11% month - on - month [55]. - Live hog inventory: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In February, the live hog inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.79% month - on - month and 5.57% year - on - year, and the inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.36% month - on - month and 11.89% year - on - year [59]. - Slaughter volume and average weight: In February, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 12.95% month - on - month and increased by 12.12% year - on - year, and the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.85% month - on - month and 23.07% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs this week was 123.17 kg, the same as last week [63]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - Livestock and poultry breeding profit: As of March 13, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 118.18 yuan/head, a decrease of 59.29 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs was - 283.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.17 yuan/head. The breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.33 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.32 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 yuan/head [68]. 3.3.3. Domestic Import - In December 2025, the pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%; from January to December, the pork import volume was 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [74]. 3.3.4. Substitute Products - As of the week of March 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of March 12, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with last week [78]. 3.3.5. Feed - Feed price: As of March 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 3438.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 264.29 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of March 6, the spot price of corn was 2446.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.02 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog feed cost index was 971.98, and the average market price of live hog feed was 2.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week [85][89]. - Feed production: In December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 307,000 tons. In February 2026, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 3.84% month - on - month and 2.77% year - on - year [94]. 3.3.6. CPI - As of February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year [99]. 3.3.7. Downstream - Slaughter enterprise situation: In the 11th week of 2026, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 28.53%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points compared with last week and 2.67 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 82.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.54%; the frozen - product storage rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.32% compared with last week and 0.92% compared with the same period last year [103]. - Slaughter volume and catering consumption: As of January 2026, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 44.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.96% and a 15.41% increase compared with the previous month. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [109]. 3.3.8. Live Hog Stocks - The report presents the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [111][113]