棉花（纱）市场周报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. The price of the May contract of US cotton also rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.65%, and the price of the 2605 contract of cotton yarn futures increased by 1.70%. The current market is in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April". It is expected that the upward trend of cotton prices will remain unchanged in the short term [7][13][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78% [7] - Market Outlook: According to the USDA report, in the week ending March 5, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 253,200 bales, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 370,100 bales, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the average level of the previous four weeks. On the domestic market, on the supply side, the port inventory increased significantly, and the inventory of Brazilian cotton in the warehouse remained at a high level. As of March 12, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports was 571,500 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous month. On the consumption side, in the first two months, China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly. From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year-on-year increase; among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a 20.5% year-on-year increase; clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a 14.8% year-on-year increase. At the same time, the demand in the textile industry in March is slowly starting, and textile enterprises continue to resume production. It is expected that the upward trend of cotton prices will remain unchanged in the short term [7] - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: This week, the price of the May contract of US cotton increased, with a weekly increase of about 2.65%. As of March 3, 2026, the non-commercial long positions of US cotton were 112,260 lots, an increase of 8,836 lots from the previous week; the non-commercial short positions were 140,357 lots, an increase of 7,963 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,097 lots, a decrease of 873 lots from the previous week [13] - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: In the week ending March 5, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 253,200 bales, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 75.75 cents per pound, a 1.25-cent increase from the previous week [17] - Futures Market: This week, the price of the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. The 2605 contract of cotton yarn futures increased by 1.70%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were -217,834 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures were -1,323 lots. As of this week, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 12,506, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 320 [24][30][37] - Spot Market: As of March 13, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,877 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 22,000 yuan per ton, the CY index: OEC10s (rotor yarn) was 15,450 yuan per ton; the CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 25,000 yuan per ton [44][55] - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of March 12, the sliding duty price of imported cotton was reported at 13,774 yuan per ton, a 141-yuan increase from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was reported at 12,664 yuan per ton, a 219-yuan increase from the previous week. As of March 12, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: C21S was 20,583 yuan per ton; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: C32S was 21,967 yuan per ton; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: JC32S was 23,630 yuan per ton [61] - Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit: As of March 12, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding duty was 2,894 yuan per ton, a 44-yuan decrease from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,381 yuan per ton, a 122-yuan decrease from the previous week [65] 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a 23.51% month-on-month increase and a 1.75% year-on-year increase; at the end of December, the in-warehouse industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [68] - Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a 60,000-ton increase from the previous month and a 31% year-on-year increase; from January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a 59.1% year-on-year decrease. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a 60,000-ton increase from the previous month and a 20,000-ton increase from the same period last year [72] - Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were reported at 21.71 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were reported at 33.13 days, a 1.87% month-on-month decrease [75] - Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Clothing Export Volume: From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year-on-year increase; among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a 20.5% year-on-year increase; clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a 14.8% year-on-year increase [80] - Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail Sales Cumulative Volume: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was reported at 166.1 billion yuan, a 7.75% month-on-month increase [84] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - Options Market: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was presented in the report, but no specific data was given [85] - Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.: The report presented the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis was given [88]