白糖市场周报-20260313

Group 1: Report Summary - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.42% [5][19] - Thailand's 2025/26 sugar cane crushing season shows an increase in supply, with cumulative cane crushing and sugar production up year-on-year [5] - In the domestic market, 8 sugar mills in Guangxi have shut down in the 25/26 season, and the first wave of shutdowns may come next week [5] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - The price of the US Sugar May contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.41% [12] - As of March 3, 2026, the non-commercial net short position of raw sugar futures decreased by 1089 lots, with long positions increasing by 9867 lots and short positions increasing by 8778 lots [12] - The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.42% [19] - The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou Sugar futures is -122967 lots, and the warehouse receipts are 16342 [25] - The spread between the 5-9 contracts of Zhengzhou Sugar futures is -36 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou Sugar is +33 yuan/ton [29] Spot Market - The international raw sugar spot price is 14.27 cents/lb, up 0.27 cents/lb from last week [16] - As of March 13, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5480 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanning is 5470 yuan/ton [35] - The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1412 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 254 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from last week [41] - The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota is 1421 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 360 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from last week [41] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply Side - In December 2025, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 316.67% and a month-on-month increase of 140,000 tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 950% [50] Demand Side - In December 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 3.5904 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 13.4214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [61] Group 4: Option and Stock Market Option Market - The implied volatility of the at-the-money option of sugar this week is presented in the chart [62] Stock Market - The price-earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is shown in the chart [67]