合成橡胶市场周报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market increased significantly week - on - week, with the spot price ranging from 13,850 to 16,100 yuan/ton. The supply price and market price of cis - butadiene rubber generally rose significantly this week, but there was wide - range volatility due to the uncertainty of the news on crude oil supply [7]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to affect crude oil and shipping. The supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises face uncertainties such as reduced raw material supply and a sharp rise in prices. Some production enterprises have limited salable resources, and some enterprises control inventory levels cautiously to wait and see. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises increased slightly this week, and the inventory of trading enterprises changed little [7]. - There is no substantial expectation of easing the crude oil supply problem. The overall supply of butadiene is tight. Cis - butadiene rubber production faces high costs and raw material supply shortages. It is not ruled out that some production enterprises will passively reduce the device load or even carry out maintenance. It is expected that the short - term supply reduction will drive the inventory down [7]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly week - on - week. The production scheduling of each tire enterprise has basically returned to the normal level, which supports the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The domestic and foreign sales of semi - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, and the overall shipment performance is average. The domestic sales of all - steel tire enterprises are active, and the inventory removal rhythm has accelerated. There are still many uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and there are still export resistances in some regions of tire enterprises. Enterprises will flexibly adjust the production scheduling ratio of domestic and foreign sales according to their own order situation, and there is a short - term expectation of a slight decline [7]. - Due to the uncertainty risk of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market increased significantly week - on - week, with the spot price ranging from 13,850 to 16,100 yuan/ton. The supply price and market price of cis - butadiene rubber generally rose significantly this week, but there was wide - range volatility due to the uncertainty of the news on crude oil supply [7]. - Market Outlook: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to affect crude oil and shipping. The supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises face uncertainties such as reduced raw material supply and a sharp rise in prices. The short - term supply reduction is expected to drive the inventory down. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly week - on - week, but there are still export resistances in some regions of tire enterprises, and there is a short - term expectation of a slight decline [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the uncertainty risk of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 7.03% [11]. - Position Analysis: Not provided in the content - Inter - period Spread: As of March 13, the 5 - 6 spread of butadiene rubber was 275 [17]. - Futures Warehouse Receipt: As of March 13, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 22,130 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons compared with last week [20]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot Price: As of March 12, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was reported at 15,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton compared with last week [25]. - Basis: As of March 12, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 470 yuan/ton compared with last week [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - External Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of March 12, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 977.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 200.87 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was reported at 1,000 US dollars/ton, an increase of 90 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28]. - Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of March 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 72.7%, a decrease of 3.58% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 8,100 tons compared with last week [31]. 3.3.2. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization - Production: In February 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons compared with last month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36% and a year - on - year increase of 25.64%. In February, 3 cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises (1 Sinopec and 2 PetroChina) stopped production for maintenance, involving an annual processing capacity of 130,000 tons; 1 enterprise (1 Sinopec) resumed production, involving an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons [34]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: As of March 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 79.98%, a decrease of 1.64% compared with last week [34]. 3.3.3. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit - As of March 12, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 2,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 872 yuan/ton compared with last week [37]. 3.3.4. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory - Social Inventory: As of March 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 44,430 tons, an increase of 1,010 tons compared with last week [41]. - Manufacturer and Trader Inventory: As of March 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 35,350 tons, an increase of 950 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 9,080 tons, an increase of 60 tons compared with last week [41]. 3.4. Downstream Situation 3.4.1. Tire Operating Rate - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points. The production scheduling of domestic tire enterprises has basically returned to the normal level, but there are still export resistances in some regions, and there is a short - term expectation of a slight decline [44]. 3.4.2. Tire Export Volume - In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire export volume was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [47].