铝类市场周报：供给稳定需求回暖，铝类或将有所支撑-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The price is affected by geopolitical situations. It is recommended to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and slightly recovering demand. It is recommended to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position on dips for short - term long positions, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5] - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of increasing supply and weak demand. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7] - In the option market, considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buy strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [71] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level on the weekly line, with a weekly increase of 0.99%, closing at 24,960 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 4.38%, closing at 2,956 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.61%, closing at 23,655 yuan/ton [4][7] - Market Outlook - Alumina: The mining of bauxite in Guinea has seasonally recovered, but due to geopolitical conflicts, shipping capacity has decreased and shipping costs have increased. The supply of domestic alumina remains high in the long - term, while the demand in the Middle East has declined, and domestic demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable [4] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Alumina prices have risen due to geopolitical factors, but aluminum prices are also strong, and smelter profits are good. Supply is stable, and demand has slightly recovered, with downstream inventory being depleted [5] - Cast Aluminum: The supply of cast aluminum alloy is increasing, while demand is weak as downstream die - casting plants mainly adopt a just - in - time procurement strategy [7] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Changes - As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 25,000 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan/ton (1.44%) from March 6. The closing price of LME aluminum on March 12 was 3,533 US dollars/ton, up 240.5 US dollars/ton (7.3%) from March 6 [10] - The alumina futures price was 2,830 yuan/ton on March 13, up 72 yuan/ton (2.61%) from March 6. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 23,655 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton (1.61%) from March 6 [14] - Ratio and Spread Changes - As of March 13, 2026, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.13, down 0.71 from March 6 [11] - The aluminum - zinc futures spread was - 820 yuan/ton on March 13, down 365 yuan/ton from March 6. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 75,350 yuan/ton, down 985 yuan/ton from March 6 [20] - Inventory and Position Changes - As of March 13, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 689,047 lots, up 12,303 lots (1.82%) from March 6. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, up 61,520 lots from March 6 [17] - Spot Price Changes - As of March 13, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan was 2,705 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.5%) from March 6; in Shanxi, it was 2,680 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (1.32%); in Guiyang, it was 2,680 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (1.32%). The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 25,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton (2.86%) from March 6 [23] - The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 25,100 yuan/ton on March 13, up 690 yuan/ton (2.83%) from March 6. The spot discount was 150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [28] 3. Industry Situation - Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 447,300 tons, down 11,825 tons (2.58%) from March 5. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 416,425 tons on March 13, up 21,927 tons (5.56%) from last week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1,261,200 tons on March 12, up 47,000 tons (3.87%) from March 5 [33] - The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 361,968 tons on March 13, up 32,341 tons (9.81%) from March 6. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts totaled 272,800 tons on March 12, down 104,300 tons (27.66%) from March 5 [33] - Raw Material Import and Inventory - The domestic bauxite inventory at nine ports was 24.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons. In December 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 14.6734 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02%. From January to December, the total import of bauxite was 200.5319 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.31% [36] - Waste Aluminum - The price of crushed waste aluminum in Shandong was 18,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 194,102.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%; the export was 70.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [42] - Alumina - In December 2025, the alumina output was 8.0108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to December, the cumulative output was 92.4456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import was 227,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1389.71%. The export was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.53% and a year - on - year increase of 10.53%. From January to December, the cumulative import was 1.1978 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [45] - Electrolytic Aluminum - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to December, the cumulative output was 45.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. In January 2026, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.854 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 2.28%. The total capacity was 45.402 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 0.51%. The operating rate was 98.79%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.71% from the same period last year [51] - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 189,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.22%. From January to December, the cumulative import was 2.5376 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.82%. In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum export was 37,600 tons. From January to December, the cumulative export was 296,600 tons. From January to November 2025, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 204,900 tons [48] - Aluminum Products - In December 2025, the aluminum product output was 6.1356 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0%. From January to December, the cumulative output was 67.5039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In December 2025, the aluminum product import was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%; the export was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to December, the cumulative import was 3.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the cumulative export was 6.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [55] - Cast Aluminum Alloy - In January 2026, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The output was 664,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3 and a year - on - year increase of 10.95% [58] - Aluminum Alloy - In December 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. From January to December, the cumulative output was 19.297 million tons. In December 2025, the aluminum alloy import was 93,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%; the export was 25,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.03%. From January to December, the cumulative import was 1.0084 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.82%; the cumulative export was 284,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [61] - Related Industries - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%; the housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9% [64] - From January to December 2024, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, China's automobile sales were 3,272,229 units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%; the automobile production was 3,295,965 units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% [67] 4. Option Market Analysis - Considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buy strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [71]