美元延续偏强走势，金价上行持续遇阻

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the precious metals market showed a high - level volatile pattern. The prices of gold and silver were affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, crude oil fluctuations, and US macro - data. The market was in a tug - of - war between "rising rate - cut expectations" and "growing concerns about imported inflation" [6]. - In the short - term, the development of the US - Iran situation is the core factor affecting the trend of gold and silver. If the situation remains volatile, the prices of precious metals will likely continue to fluctuate. If the geopolitical situation eases, the Fed's mid - year rate - cut expectations may rise again, supporting the prices of gold and silver. In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains intact, and it is recommended to make long - term investments on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - This week, the precious metals market was in a high - level volatile pattern. At the beginning of the week, due to Trump's signals of easing the US - Iran conflict, some funds flowed back to precious metals, pushing up prices. US macro - data affected the market's rate - cut expectations. Later, concerns about inflation and the strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields suppressed precious metals prices [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: As of March 13, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 was reported at 20,923 yuan/kg, down 3.76% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 was reported at 1,133 yuan/g, down 0.68% for the week [11]. - ETF Net Positions: As of March 12, 2026, the net positions of gold and silver ETFs on the external market had a small outflow. The net position of SPDR gold ETF was 1,077.28 tons, a 0.35% decrease; the net position of SLV silver ETF was 15,655 tons, a 2% decrease [16]. - COMEX Net Long Positions: As of March 3, 2026, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased. The net position of COMEX gold was 160,145 contracts, a 0.60% increase; the net position of COMEX silver was 23,338 contracts, a 4.84% increase [21]. - Basis Changes: As of March 12, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold and silver main contracts weakened week - on - week. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.10 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 14 yuan/kg [24]. - Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads: As of March 12, 2026, the domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver widened. The domestic - foreign price spread of the Shanghai gold main contract was 13.10 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 2,981 yuan/kg [27]. - Inventory Changes: As of March 12, 2026, the inventories of gold and silver in domestic and foreign exchanges decreased. COMEX gold inventory was 32,656,406.59 ounces, a 1.34% decrease; COMEX silver inventory was 345,310,443 ounces, a 2.80% decrease; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105,033 kg, almost unchanged; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 255,952 kg, a 16.5% decrease [32]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: As of March 12, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver price) was 60.61, down from 61.22 in the same period last week [36]. 3.3. Industry Supply - Demand Situation - Silver Industry: As of December 2025, the import quantities of silver and silver ore sand increased significantly. The import quantity of Chinese silver was 334,742.41 kg, a 27.03% increase; the import quantity of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 239,325,381 kg, a 32.29% increase. Due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate stabilized. In December 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,810,000 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 12.9% [40][44]. - Gold Supply - Demand: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and emerging - market central banks continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, a record high, and the total demand amount was 55.5 billion US dollars. The investment demand for gold reached 2,175 tons, and the net position of gold ETFs increased by 801 tons for the whole year [48]. - Silver Supply - Demand: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a small increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly. It is predicted that the global total silver supply will increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the total demand will decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap will narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% decrease [51]. 3.4. Macro and Options - Macro Data: This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued to be strong. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price decreased. Emerging - market central banks maintained their gold - buying stance, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [52][56][60].