苹果市场周报-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of approximately 3.08%. The inventory removal speed has accelerated, but the sales in the consumer market have slowed down. Due to the influence of low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term Apple main contract will fluctuate more significantly, and risk control should be noted [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of about 3.08% [4][8] - Market Outlook: The inventory removal in production areas varies, generally stronger in the west and weaker in the east. As of March 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas of the country was 5.2753 billion tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. In Shandong, the storage capacity ratio is 41.561%, a decrease of 1.45% from the previous week; in Shaanxi, the storage capacity ratio is 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous week. In the consumer market, after the Spring Festival, the sales are stable, the market arrival volume is low, and the sales speed has slowed down. Due to the influence of low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term Apple main contract will fluctuate more significantly, and risk control should be noted [4] - Future Trading Tips: Fruit prices and consumption [4] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of about 3.08%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in Apple Futures is 5,540 lots, and the number of Apple Futures warehouse receipts is 0 [8][14] 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of March 13, 2026, the mainstream price of farmer - produced bagged Red Fuji apples (above 80) in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of bagged Fuji apples (above 75) in Yiyuan, Shandong is 2.40 yuan per catty [17] 3.3. Industrial Situation and Options 3.3.1. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply Side: As of March 11, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas of the country was 4.9972 billion tons, a decrease of 278,200 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. In Shandong, the storage capacity ratio is 40.05%, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week; in Shaanxi, the storage capacity ratio is 39.21%, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week [22] - Demand Side - As of March 12, the average daily early - morning vehicle arrival volume at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.35 yuan per catty [26] - As of March 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties is 9.51 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.37 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram [31] - As of March 6, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) is 7.97 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan per kilogram [35] - According to customs data, in December 2025, the total export of fresh apples in China was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value was 162,842,207 US dollars [39] 3.3.2. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart [40] 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [42]