花生市场周报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main peanut contract 2605 rose by 3.54%. After the holiday, there is no short - term capital pressure. The grass - roots delivery volume is low, processing enterprises are not active in purchasing, and some holders sell at a discount. The trading is dull. The prices of oil factory oilseeds remain stable, some factories still have no plans to start purchasing or operating, and the overall arrival volume is not large recently. The demand in the oilseed and food markets is not good. It is expected that the peanut price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the procurement dynamics of oil factories [6][9] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - The main peanut contract 2605 rose this week, with a gain of 3.54%. After the holiday, due to no short - term capital pressure, the grass - roots delivery volume is low, processing enterprises are not active in purchasing, and some holders sell at a discount. The trading is dull. The prices of oil factory oilseeds remain stable, some factories still have no plans to start purchasing or operating, and the overall arrival volume is not large recently. The demand in the oilseed and food markets is not good. It is expected that the peanut price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the procurement dynamics of oil factories [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: The main peanut contract 2605 rose this week, with a gain of 3.54% [9] - Futures price spread: The closing price spread of the peanut 5 - 10 futures contract was reported at - 254 yuan/ton this week [16] - Net positions of the top 20: As of March 12, 2026, the long positions of the top 20 in peanut futures were 129,533 lots, the short positions were 130,255 lots, and the net positions were - 722 lots, a decrease of 271 lots compared with last week [22] - Warehouse receipts: As of March 12, 2025, the registered peanut warehouse receipts were 900 (+0) lots [26] - Spot prices: As of March 12, the spot prices of common peanuts in Shandong and Henan were 9,000 (+0) yuan/ton and 7,000 (-0) yuan/ton respectively. As of the week of February 28, the average price of national oil peanuts was 7,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [33] - Basis: As of March 12, 2026, the basis was 214.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 273 yuan/ton compared with last week, and it was in a reverse market [38] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply side: The peanut harvest area in 2025 is expected to increase slightly [42] - Oil factory operation and inventory: As of March 12, the operating rate of sample oil factories was 3.13 (2.93)%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.71%. As of March 12, the peanut inventory of sample oil factories was 195,945 (6,500) tons [48] - Oil factory profit: On March 5, 2026, the average purchase contract price of oil factory oil peanuts was 7,350 yuan/ton, the total processing cost was 7,700 yuan/ton, which was flat week - on - week; the average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil was 14,317 yuan/ton, the average price of 48% protein peanut meal was 3,050 yuan/ton, and the total revenue was 7,803.31 yuan/ton, which was flat week - on - week. Therefore, the theoretical processing profit was 103.31 yuan/ton, which was flat week - on - week [52] - Import and export: In December 2025, the total peanut import volume was 25,628.23 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11,663.46 tons (31.28%) and a month - on - month decrease of 3,304.86 tons compared with the same period last month [55] - Downstream - peanut oil price: As of March 12, the ex - factory price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil was about 14,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the price of strong - flavored peanut oil was about 15,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5,080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton compared with last week [58] - Downstream - peanut meal price: This week, the price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong was 3,300 (50) yuan/ton. As of March 12, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was 0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan/ton [65] 3.4. Options Market - The report mentions the 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the option underlying, but no specific data is provided [67]