每日商品期市纵览-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including daily and weekly price changes, and elaborates on the influencing factors and future trends of each commodity. The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has a significant impact on the prices of energy, metals, and agricultural products. Summary by Category Financial Futures - Stock Index: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East suppress interest - rate cut expectations, but domestic policy expectations form a bottom support. After the Two Sessions, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan may bring unexpected information and drive the market stronger [2]. - Treasury Bonds: Domestic monetary policy is favorable for the bond market, and the US - Iran conflict increases trading activity [2]. Shipping - Container Shipping on the European Line: Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz support spot freight rates, but regulatory pressure and market caution lead to short - term high - level oscillations [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The US - Iran conflict and US tariff policies bring uncertainties. Rising production costs in South Africa provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks exist due to delayed interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - Gold and Silver: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz weaken the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the rising US dollar and bond yields suppress precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to panic selling under liquidity risks [5]. - Copper: The approaching FOMC meeting and geopolitical conflicts suppress copper prices. Demand shows structural characteristics, and inventory reduction speed is the key to price trends [5]. - Aluminum: The supply of natural gas in Qatar affects the production of electrolytic aluminum. Short - term trends are dominated by the war situation [6]. - Alumina: Affected by the prices of aluminum and other varieties, it shows short - term price rebounds but a long - term surplus situation. Attention should be paid to new production capacity in March [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the price of Shanghai aluminum and has strong support below [7]. - Zinc: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand is facing inventory pressure. Short - term prices may be suppressed, and future trends depend on the development of the Iran situation and inventory reduction [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Supply fluctuations in Indonesia increase uncertainty. The market is in the peak season, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of demand [9]. - Tin: Geopolitical factors are the main driver. Supply is tight, and demand is gradually recovering. High inventory suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term market is affected by the Middle East situation, but long - term demand growth supports prices. Attention should be paid to downstream production and inventory reduction in March [11]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The long - term development prospects are clear, but the short - term market is in a wide - range oscillation due to capacity cycle and supply - demand changes [12]. - Lead: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of this week's delivery and secondary lead delivery [12]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up the prices of raw materials, providing cost support. However, high inventory and export resistance limit the short - term rebound [13]. - Iron Ore: Tight spot liquidity drives up prices, but concerns about supply sustainability increase the probability of short - term reversal [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The terminal demand verification period in March - April is affected by the late Spring Festival and geopolitical factors. The overall price of the black series may face downward pressure, and the price elasticity of coal and coke is restricted [14]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: Although the cost support is increasing, weak downstream demand and high inventory limit the upward space [15]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The core driving factor is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and different attitudes of the conflicting parties increase price fluctuations [16]. - Fuel Oil: Supply constraints support the market, and the short - term strong situation is difficult to change [17]. - Asphalt: Supply is expected to decrease, and inventory is seasonally increasing. Prices follow the cost of crude oil, and geopolitical factors are the main driver. Attention should be paid to price drops after the situation eases [17][18]. - LPG: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz supports prices. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly [18]. - Methanol: Geopolitical conflicts and industry profit repair are the core driving factors. Attention should be paid to risks when the situation eases [19]. - Plastics: Middle - East conflicts lead to supply reduction expectations, and the market is turning to "supply decrease and demand increase", with prices rising [19]. - Rubber: Geopolitical and macro factors have a negative impact on demand. Synthetic rubber is oscillating strongly, and natural rubber is rising [20]. - Soda Ash: Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively stable. Inventory is better than expected. The price space is limited, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of industrial contradictions [21]. - Glass: Cold - repair expectations continue, but high intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase. Demand needs to be verified [22]. - Caustic Soda: Supply is at a high level, demand is differentiated, and inventory is high. Export expectations and geopolitical emotions drive the market, but high inventory and weak domestic demand limit the upward space [23]. Agricultural Products - Pigs: The market is mainly affected by weak post - Spring Festival demand, and price decline is limited, but the upward driving force is weak [24]. - Oilseeds: The expected Sino - US negotiation in April, rising planting costs, and improved export expectations drive up soybean prices. The domestic market follows the US soybean market [24]. - Oils and Fats: The market rebounds following crude oil, and policies in Indonesia and the US are favorable. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation and the US bio - fuel policy review [25]. - Cotton: Tight domestic supply - demand expectations support prices, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical conflicts pose pressure. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [25]. - Sugar: Rising oil prices drive up the price of Brazilian ethanol, leading to expectations of tightened sugar supply. The short - term strong situation is expected to continue [26][27]. - Eggs: Concentrated demand release supports prices, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the upward space [27]. - Red Dates: The market focus is on demand, and the current downstream sales are weak. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [27].