国债期货周报：通胀因素扰动，长端持续调整-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, interest rates will continue to oscillate weakly due to the intertwined effects of multiple factors. The inflation factor exerts adjustment pressure on the bond market, while the potential interest rate cut of over 10 trillion deposits under the inter - bank deposit pricing self - regulatory mechanism is expected to drive the interest rate center downward [104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Weekly Data: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2606, T2606, TF2606, TS2606) declined by 1.49%, 0.26%, 0.14%, and 0.02% respectively. The trading volumes of the TS main contract decreased, while those of the TF, T, and TL main contracts increased. The positions of the TF and TS main contracts rose, while those of the T and TL main contracts declined [13][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Domestic News: On March 10, the 2026 central and local budget draft was proposed, with the national debt limit at 485,508 billion yuan, local government general debt limit at 188,689 billion yuan, and special debt limit at 443,185 billion yuan. On March 12, the Ministry of Finance revised the 2026 government revenue and expenditure classification subjects, adding several new subjects related to ultra - long - term special national debt. The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed on March 12, approving relevant reports and passing relevant laws [33]. - International News: On March 12, the US launched two new trade investigations into the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners including China. On March 11, the latest US inflation data was released, with the CPI and core CPI in line with market expectations. The IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and many countries including the US, Japan, and Germany planned to release their strategic oil reserves. On March 12, Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei issued a statement, stating that Iran would not give up revenge and would take relevant strategic measures [34][35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes: The spreads between the 10 - year and 5 - year, 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond yields widened. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The spreads between the near - and far - month contracts of the 10 - year, 30 - year, and 5 - year contracts widened, while that of the 2 - year contract narrowed [41][51][55]. - Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased [69]. - Interest Rate Changes: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate declined. The DR007 weighted average rate fell back to around 1.46%. Most of the Treasury bond spot yields increased, with the 2 - 7Y yields rising by about 0.5 - 3.5bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 3bp and 5bp to 1.82% and 2.29% respectively. The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US Treasury bond yields widened [73][79]. - Central Bank's Open - Market Operations: The central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 277.6 billion yuan due, and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 251.1 billion yuan [81]. - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, the bond issuance was 1,621.87 billion yuan, the total repayment was 1,967.75 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 339.58 billion yuan [86]. - Market Sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9007, with a cumulative increase of 18 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose, the VIX index first dropped significantly and then rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield in China rose, and the A - share risk premium slightly declined [90][96][101]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - Domestic Fundamental Aspect: Driven by the rebound of global manufacturing and export rush, China's exports increased significantly in the first two months of 2026. In February, the CPI rebounded more than expected, mainly affected by the Spring Festival misalignment effect; the PPI increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. - Overseas Aspect: The US - Iran conflict has entered the 13th day, with the Middle East tension escalating. The US inflation stabilized in February, but the labor market was under pressure, and the risk of "stagflation - like" in the US economy increased. - Overall Outlook: The inflation factor exerts adjustment pressure on the bond market, while the potential interest rate cut of over 10 trillion deposits is expected to drive the interest rate center downward. In the short term, interest rates will continue to oscillate weakly [104].