建信期货农产品周度报告-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oils and Fats: The upward trend of oils and fats continues in the short - term, but there is a need to be vigilant about corrections and fundamental divergences. The market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil, and long positions should be held. Key factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, policies of major producing countries, domestic import profits, and arrival volumes need to be closely monitored [8]. - Corn: The spot price of corn is expected to be mainly oscillating upward, while the futures price of contracts 2605/07 may also show an upward - oscillating trend, but the continuous upward space is limited. Spot enterprises should focus on rolling replenishment, and futures investors should hold long - term long positions and reduce positions when prices are high [93]. - Hogs: The spot price of hogs is expected to be mainly oscillating downward, and the futures price of contracts 05/07 may also show a downward - oscillating trend. Futures investors should hold short positions and reduce positions when prices are low, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions and reduce positions as they sell [134]. - Soybean Meal: Soybean meal may show a strong - running trend under the influence of the macro - environment and supply - demand factors, but chasing high prices for entry should be avoided due to the high - yield situation in South America [140]. - Eggs: Pay attention to the opportunity to arrange long positions during the peak season in the second half of the year and conduct rolling operations [173]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong - running trend, but there is a possibility of a short - term correction. The overall upward trend remains unchanged [193]. - Sugar: The price of raw sugar is supported by the decline in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, while the price of Zhengzhou sugar is affected by the rise of domestic commodities following the trend of crude oil. However, the sugar - mill hedging positions may put pressure on the price [220][221]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market trend: Palm oil led the rise in the oils and fats sector, with rapeseed oil and soybean oil following. The market showed a short - term strong trend but retreated from the high level during the week [8]. - Influencing factors: The escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up crude oil prices, strengthening the biodiesel attribute of the oils and fats sector. The improvement of biodiesel profits and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy also had an impact [9]. - Operation suggestions: Hold long positions and closely monitor factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, policies of major producing countries, domestic import profits, and arrival volumes [8]. 3.1.2 Core Points - Domestic Spot Changes: As of March 13, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China was 8,960 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan weekly; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China was 10,490 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan weekly; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 9,840 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan weekly [11]. - Domestic Inventory of Three Major Oils: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the total inventory of three major edible oils in China was 2.0463 million tons, up 22,700 tons weekly, with a month - on - month increase of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.26% [23]. - Domestic Supply of Oils and Oilseeds: As of the end of the 10th week, the average operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 54.26%, up 29.45% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week was 1.9968 million tons, up 1.0876 million tons from last week [24][27]. - Palm Oil Dynamics: In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.2847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.55%. Indonesia's palm oil association said that Indonesia's crude palm oil production in 2025 reached 51.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% [36]. - CFTC Positions: Speculative funds have increased their net long positions in CBOT soybeans for six consecutive weeks, net - bought in the Chicago soybean oil futures market for four consecutive weeks, and net - bought in the CBOT soybean meal futures market for six consecutive weeks [51]. Corn 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot price: The national corn price continued to be strong this week. The price in the northeast, north China, and sales areas all increased [55]. - Futures price: As of March 12, the main 2605 contract of Dalian closed at 2,396 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.5% [55]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The grain - selling progress has accelerated with the rise in temperature, but the overall progress is slower than the same period last year. As of March 6, the inventory in northern ports was 2.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 190,000 tons; the inventory in southern ports was 696,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 tons [57][58][60]. - Domestic Substitutes: The wheat market was strong this week. The price of corn was 162 yuan/ton lower than that of wheat [61]. - Imported Substitute Grains: In December, 800,000 tons of corn and corn flour were imported, a year - on - year increase of 133.1%. The import volume of other grains also showed different trends [63]. - Feed Demand: The total output of the national industrial feed in 2025 was 342.253 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly this week [77][81]. - Deep - processing Demand: The operating rate of the corn starch industry continued to increase, and the processing profit of starch enterprises improved. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed [84][85]. - Supply - demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn planting area is expected to be 44,961 thousand hectares, an increase of 220 thousand hectares from the previous year. The total output is expected to increase by 1.24 million tons to 301.24 million tons [89]. 3.2.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The spot price of corn is expected to be mainly oscillating upward, and the futures price of contracts 2605/07 may also show an upward - oscillating trend, but the continuous upward space is limited [93]. - Strategy: Spot enterprises should focus on rolling replenishment, and futures investors should hold long - term long positions and reduce positions when prices are high [93]. Hogs 3.3.1 Market Review - Spot price: The hog market showed a slow - decline trend this week. The average national hog slaughter price was 10.18 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60% [95]. - Futures price: As of Friday, the main contract LH2605 of hog futures oscillated at a low level, closing at 11,130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.3% [96]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Overview - Long - term Supply: The price of binary sows decreased slightly this week. The number of reproductive sows showed different trends according to different data sources [100][101]. - Medium - term Supply: The price of piglets decreased this week. As of February, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.3505 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.62% [111]. - Short - term Supply: The inventory of large hogs increased in February. The proportion of large hogs over 140 kg decreased in February. The utilization rate of fattening pens increased [115][116]. - Current Supply: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in March was 27.25 million heads, a 25.29% increase from the actual completion in February. The average slaughter weight this week was 128.55 kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.31% [118][119]. - Import Supply: In December, 60,000 tons of pork were imported, with the same month - on - month volume and a year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons. The total imported pork volume in 2025 was 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [124]. - Secondary Fattening Demand: Secondary fattening operations gradually started in early March. The cost of secondary fattening decreased this week [131]. - Slaughter Demand: The operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 28.53% this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.67 percentage points [132]. 3.3.3 Future Outlook - Outlook: The spot price of hogs is expected to be mainly oscillating downward, and the futures price of contracts 05/07 may also show a downward - oscillating trend [134]. - Strategy: Futures investors should hold short positions and reduce positions when prices are low, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions and reduce positions as they sell [134]. Soybean Meal 3.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot price: As of March 13, the coastal soybean meal price ranged from 3,360 to 3,550 yuan/ton, a significant increase from a week ago [138]. - Futures price: The main contract of US soybeans was strong this week. The price of domestic soybean meal also increased, and it may show a strong - running trend, but chasing high prices for entry should be avoided [139][140]. 3.4.2 Core Points - Soybean Planting: The new - season US soybean planting area is expected to be about 81.2 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slow, and the Argentine soybean yield may decrease slightly [141][143]. - US Soybean Exports: As of the week of March 5, the weekly shipment volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 995,000 tons, and the net sales volume was 457,000 tons [144]. - Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing: The import volume of soybeans in January and February was at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate and crushing volume in March are expected to recover to a relatively low level [153][154]. - Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory: As of March 6, the inventory of domestic main oil mills' soybean meal was 718,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10%. The future demand mainly depends on the import soybean auction situation [160]. - Basis and Inter - month Spread: As of March 12, the basis of the soybean meal 05 contract was about 347.14 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 218 yuan. The basis and 5 - 7 spread are expected to be mainly oscillating upward [166]. - Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of March 12, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 36,982 lots, the highest in the same period of history [170]. Eggs 3.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot price: The spot price of eggs rose and then stabilized this week. There may be a seasonal small increase in late March [173]. - Futures price: The main 04 contract oscillated, and the 05 contract was relatively strong. Pay attention to the opportunity to arrange long positions during the peak season in the second half of the year and conduct rolling operations [173]. 3.5.2 Data Summary - Inventory and Replenishment: As of the end of February 2026, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.60%. The egg - chick hatching volume in February was about 43.3 million, slightly increasing from January but decreasing compared with the same period last year [174]. - Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit: The average daily price of large - sized pink - shell eggs was 3.05 yuan/jin, and the average daily price of brown - shell eggs was 3.06 yuan/jin. The feed cost of laying hens was 3.23 yuan/kg. The breeding profit was at a very low level in history [181][182]. - Culled Hens: The culling volume increased recently, the culling age fluctuated, and the culled hen price was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [184]. - Demand, Inventory, and Hog Price: The egg sales volume was at a relatively low level in the same period of history, the egg inventory was relatively low, and the hog price was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [186]. Cotton 3.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Market trend: The external market rebounded from a low level, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward. The domestic spot market was relatively active, and the cotton yarn market was booming [191][192]. - Influencing factors: The USDA's March supply - demand report was bearish, but the market focus has shifted to the 2026/27 season. The expected strong El Nino phenomenon and the good export situation support the cotton price, but the upward space is restricted by the import cotton price [193]. - Outlook: Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong - running trend, but there is a possibility of a short - term correction. The overall upward trend remains unchanged [193]. 3.6.2 Core Points - Situation in Major Cotton - producing Countries: The USDA's March supply - demand report adjusted the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand situation. The global cotton output increased by 246,000 tons, and the consumption decreased by 30,000 tons [194]. - US Cotton Exports: As of the week of March 5, the net signing volume of US cotton was 59,000 tons, and the shipment volume was 88,000 tons [201]. - Operation of Textile Enterprises: As of March 6, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 34.6 days, the yarn inventory was 21.0 days, the yarn inventory of textile mills was 11.8 days, and the cotton -坯布 inventory was 36.5 days. The load index of yarn and cotton -坯布 increased [203]. - Basis and Inter - month Spread: As of March 12, the basis of the cotton 05 contract was 1,303 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton [215]. - CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of March 3, the non - commercial net short position of cotton was 28,097 lots. As of March 12, the total number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts was 12,771 lots [217]. Sugar 3.7.1 Weekly Review - Raw sugar: The raw sugar index rebounded and then oscillated, testing the 15 - cent mark. The rise in oil prices led to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, which was positive for raw sugar [220]. - Zhengzhou sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar index rose sharply, breaking through the 5,500 mark. The domestic sugar market is in the production peak season and consumption off - season, but the rise of domestic commodities following the trend of crude oil drove the rise of Zhengzhou sugar [221]. 3.7.2 Core Points - Spot and Futures Market: The spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong increased. The basis expanded, and the 5 - 9 spread weakened [223][228]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of March 11, the total number of registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was 17,026 lots, a decrease of 144 lots from last week [226]. - Brazilian Sugar Production: In the second half