饲料养殖周度报告-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, with the strong performance of US soybeans and the resonance of internal and external positive factors, the soybean meal market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of the soybean sector due to its inability to have an independent market based on its own fundamentals [29]. - In the medium - to - long - term, given the globally loose supply fundamentals, the overall upward space for prices in the feed - breeding industry is limited [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Breeding Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing prices of the main contracts of soybean meal (M2605), rapeseed meal (RM605), and corn (C2605) increased by 7.42%, 7.51%, and 0.50% respectively from March 5th to March 12th, 2026, while the main contract of live pigs (LH2605) decreased by 0.09%, and the main contract of eggs (JD2605) increased by 1.80% [4]. - Spot: The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and eggs increased by 8.25%, 7.11%, 0.63%, and 5.46% respectively, while the spot price of live pigs decreased by 4.78% [4]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Cost - side - The probability of an El Niño event occurring from June to August is increasing. The US Department of Agriculture's March supply - demand report made little adjustment. The forecast of the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remained at 350 million bushels, the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans remained at 1.8 billion tons, and the forecast of Argentine soybean output was lowered from 4.85 million tons last month to 4.8 million tons. The global ending inventory of soybeans in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 125.31 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from February [9]. - Cargill has suspended some soybean exports due to the change in the Brazilian government's inspection system. The condition of the Argentine 2025/26 soybean crop has improved for the second consecutive week due to recent rainfall in key planting areas [9]. 3.2.2 Supply - China's soybean imports in February were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [9]. 3.2.3 Demand - In March, domestic soybean crushing volume increased, but the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased. The expected monthly soybean crushing volume is about 7 million tons, and the output of soybean meal is about 5.6 million tons. On March 12th, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil - mill soybean meal decreased, with the average trading price reaching a 10 - and - a - half - month high [9]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the survey data, the soybean inventory of domestic main oil mills was 572.67 million tons, a decrease of 4.03% from last week but an increase of 54.73% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 76.05 million tons, an increase of 8.46% from last week and 28.27% year - on - year [9]. 3.3 Supply - side Details 3.3.1 Import - As of March 12th, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was $489.00 per ton, a $17 increase from last week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was $525.00 per ton, a $12 increase from last week [16]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of March 12th, the soybean pressing profit was 270.75 yuan per ton, a 228.05 - yuan increase from last week. As of the week of March 6th, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9145 million tons, a 530,600 - ton increase from last week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 49%, a 14 - percentage - point increase from last week [19]. 3.4 Inventory - side Details - As of March 12th, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.2418 million tons, a decrease of 93,900 tons from last week. As of March 6th, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 735,200 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last week. Both are at extremely high levels in the past five years [21]. 3.5 Demand - side Details - As of March 6th, the average daily trading volume of domestic mainstream oil - mill soybean meal was 33,900 tons, the same as the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [23]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The report presents data on rapeseed imports from different countries to China, rapeseed meal production in China at different time intervals (weekly, monthly, yearly), and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed at domestic pressing plants [25]. - Demand and Inventory: Data on the beginning inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume of rapeseed meal in China, as well as the inventory at pressing plants and in some regions, are provided [27]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, soybean meal shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to the strong performance of US soybeans and the resonance of positive factors at home and abroad. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of the soybean sector [29]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the overall upward space is limited due to the globally loose supply fundamentals [30]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus includes产区 weather, geopolitical situation, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [31].