沪锌市场周报：宏观弱势采需平淡，预计锌价承压下调-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc market is expected to fluctuate weakly, breaking below the MA60 support, and attention should be paid to the 2.37 level below [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of -0.49% and an amplitude of 1.77%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,140 yuan/ton [7] - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, the US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with multiple drone attacks in Dubai and oil prices breaking through the $100 mark. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ore has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad remain low. However, the sulfuric acid price has strengthened, and the profits of domestic smelters have expanded. It is expected that the enthusiasm of smelters to resume work after the festival will increase. Recently, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window has closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is still in the off-season, and the real estate sector is a drag. The infrastructure and home appliance sectors are slowly recovering, still lacking obvious increments, while policies in the automotive and other fields have brought some highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, but downstream purchases are still light, the spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventories continue to increase. LME zinc inventories have decreased slightly, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has increased while the price has fallen, and the bearish sentiment has increased [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton or 0.49% compared to March 6, 2026. As of March 12, 2026, the closing price of London zinc was $3,314.5/ton, an increase of $84.5/ton or 2.62% compared to March 6, 2026 [12] - Net Position of Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc: As of March 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 4,338 lots, an increase of 2,130 lots compared to March 6, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the position volume of Shanghai zinc was 183,422 lots, a decrease of 6,259 lots or 3.3% compared to March 6, 2026 [17] - Price Spreads: As of March 13, 2026, the aluminum-zinc futures price spread was -820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan/ton compared to March 6, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the lead-zinc futures price spread was 7,585 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to March 6, 2026 [20] - Spot Premiums: As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.12% compared to March 6, 2026. The spot discount was 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of March 12, 2026, the LME zinc near-month to 3-month spread was -$44.64/ton, a decrease of $16.43/ton compared to March 5, 2026 [24] - Inventory Changes: As of March 12, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 98,750 tons, an increase of 3,750 tons or 3.95% compared to March 5, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 147,348 tons, an increase of 12,427 tons or 9.21% compared to last week. As of March 12, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 231,300 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons or 8.39% compared to March 5, 2026 [28] 3. Industry Situation - Upstream - Zinc Ore: In December 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0799 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.27%. In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 462,599.36 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.44% and a year-on-year increase of 1.15% [34] - Supply - Global Refined Zinc: In December 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1977 million tons, an increase of 57,100 tons or 5.01% compared to the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.2398 million tons, an increase of 65,100 tons or 5.54% compared to the same period last year. The global refined zinc deficit was 42,100 tons, compared to a deficit of 34,100 tons in the same period last year. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, the global zinc market supply-demand balance in November 2025 was 29,000 tons [38][39] - Supply - Refined Zinc Output: In December 2025, the zinc output was 675,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 7.528 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [42] - Supply - Refined Zinc Imports and Exports: In December 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 8,760.85 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 73.4%. The refined zinc export volume was 27,266.66 tons, a year-on-year increase of 524.21% [45] - Downstream - Galvanized Sheets: In January 2026, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 1.0667 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 61.59%. In December 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 31,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 43.22%. The export volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 404,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.95% [48][49] - Downstream - Real Estate: From January to December 2025, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.47%. The housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%. From January to December 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 9.311716 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 1.285196 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8% [54][55] - Downstream - Infrastructure Investment: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 compared to the previous month and a decrease of 1.1 compared to the same period last year. From January to December 2025, the infrastructure investment decreased by -1.48% year-on-year [60][61] - Downstream - Home Appliances: In December 2025, the refrigerator output was 10.0115 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative refrigerator output was 109.2436 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. In December 2025, the air conditioner output was 21.6289 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative air conditioner output was 266.9749 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [63] - Downstream - Automobiles: In February 2026, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 1.805 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. The production volume of Chinese automobiles was 1.672 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.49% [67]