沪锡市场周报：供应恢复需求平淡，预计锡价弱势调整-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai tin price will experience a short - term weak adjustment, breaking below the MA60 support level, and suggests paying attention to the 355,000 yuan/ton position. The main reasons include the complex macro - situation and the current state of supply and demand in the tin market. On the supply side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the import pressure is rising. On the demand side, although the development of the AI field is expected to drive the demand for solder, the current downstream demand is weak [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak decline. The weekly price change was - 4.97%, and the amplitude was 9.26%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 374,110 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: - Macro - aspect: The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with multiple drone attacks in Dubai and oil prices breaking through $100 per barrel. - Fundamental - aspect: On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to lead to a continued increase in domestic tin ore imports. The processing fee for tin ore has increased slightly, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. In the smelting sector, the output of refined tin will gradually recover after the Spring Festival, but most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories, and some external - mined ore production capacities are at a loss, which will affect the output of refined tin. In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased. On the demand side, the development of the AI field has strong prospects, which will significantly drive the demand for solder. Recently, the tin price has declined, but the downstream sentiment is weak, and the procurement demand is flat due to the fear of price drops. The inventory has increased again, and the spot premium is 1,750 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium has been adjusted. - Technical - aspect: The position remains stable with a weak adjustment, and both long and short positions are trading cautiously [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Spot Premium: This week, the futures price has declined, and the spot premium has increased. As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 374,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17,530 yuan/ton or 4.48% compared to March 6. As of March 12, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was $49,230 per ton, a decrease of $175 per ton or 0.35% compared to March 6 [11]. - Ratio of Tin to Nickel and Shanghai - London Ratio: As of March 13, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.8, an increase of 0.09 compared to March 6. As of March 12, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.96, an increase of 0.06 compared to March 3 [17]. - Position and Net Position: As of March 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 11,597 lots, a decrease of 788 lots compared to March 9, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 87,355 lots, a decrease of 3,777 lots or 4.14% compared to March 6 [21]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Output: In December 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 17,637.24 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.82% and a year - on - year increase of 120.09%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import of tin ore and concentrates was 135,733.29 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [27][28]. - Tin Ore Processing Fee: On March 13, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton or 14.29% compared to March 12, 2026. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton or 10.34% compared to March 12, 2026 [33]. - Refined Tin Import Window: As of March 12, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 3,560.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,942.16 yuan/ton compared to March 6, 2026. In December 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,547.75 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import of refined tin was 23,189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.04%. In December 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 2,763.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.81% and a year - on - year increase of 32.57%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export of refined tin was 23,437.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.75% [38][39]. - Inventory: As of March 12, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 8,630 tons, an increase of 855 tons or 11% compared to March 5. As of March 13, 2026, the total tin inventory was 12,514 tons, an increase of 851 tons or 7.3% compared to last week. As of March 13, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 12,273 tons, an increase of 2,026 tons or 19.77% compared to March 6 [42]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: On March 12, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,643.17, a decrease of 178.59 or 2.28% compared to March 5. From January to December 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 48,427,948.1 million pieces, an increase of 3,285,651.6 million pieces or 7.28% compared to the same period last year [45]. - Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export: As of January 2026, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, the same as in December 2025. As of December 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 142,904.25 tons, a decrease of 4,471.33 tons or 3.03% compared to November [49].