瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market showed a narrow and upward trend. The average price in Shandong remained flat week-on-week, but the international urea price rose sharply due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, driving up the domestic futures price [8]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased, and the output is expected to fluctuate little. Agricultural demand has decreased, but some dealers have replenished their stocks. The开工 rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the industrial consumption of urea has risen. The inventory of urea enterprises has declined, and the de-stocking trend is expected to continue in the short term [8]. - Affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the international price is at a high level, and the domestic urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the factory quotes are relatively stable due to the guidance price [8]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly and strongly. By Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1840 yuan/ton, with the average price unchanged week - on - week. Most urea factory quotes reached the guidance price level and remained stable. The international price increase due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East drove up the domestic futures price [8]. - Market Outlook: Domestic urea production may fluctuate slightly. Agricultural demand has decreased, but dealers' replenishment and increased industrial consumption from compound fertilizer plants are observed. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The domestic market will fluctuate strongly, but factory quotes will be stable due to the guidance price [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1850 and 1950 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract rose by 3.22% this week [11]. - Inter - period Spread: As of March 13, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 23 [14]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of March 13, there were 8055 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 5195 compared with last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Price: As of March 12, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [26]. - Foreign Price: As of March 12, the FOB price of Chinese urea was 565 US dollars/ton, an increase of 84 US dollars/ton compared with last week [30]. - Basis: As of March 12, the urea basis was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal Price: As of March 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [38]. - Natural Gas Price: As of March 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity Utilization and Output: As of March 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 153.76 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the capacity utilization rate was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period [40]. - Inventory: As of March 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 18.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons, a decrease of 0.53% week - on - week. As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.76 tons, a decrease of 14.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.79% [44]. - Export: In December 2025, urea exports were 27.83 tons, a decrease of 53.75% month - on - month [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Compound Fertilizer: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points from the previous period. The开工 rate is expected to continue to rise in the next period [52]. - Melamine: As of March 12, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 53.35%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from last week [52].