股指黄金周度报告-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: After the conclusion of the National Two Sessions, the policy side is mostly favorable, but geopolitical risks persist. Stock indices may fluctuate in the short - term, and investors should wait patiently for stabilization signals. The repeated escalation of the US - Iran situation has pushed up inflation expectations due to rising oil prices, suppressing expectations of Fed rate cuts, and gold has entered a high - level consolidation pattern, with the risk of a breakdown downward [35]. - Medium - to long - term: Stock index valuations will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. The stock index will maintain a wide - range consolidation in the medium term. The stimulative effect of US tax cuts on the economy will gradually emerge, and there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - In February 2026, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points. From January to February, imports increased 19.8% year - on - year, and exports increased 21.8% year - on - year, the highest growth rate since February 2022 [6]. - In the US in February, non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year, with the increase remaining the same as the previous month [20]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led to rising prices of international crude oil and chemical commodities, which helps repair the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face high operating pressure, with the long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits, and they have to reduce production and inventory [14]. - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly to 2634.2 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 101.1 billion yuan [17]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory has slowed down, and the COMEX gold inventory in New York has continued to decline, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [34].