聚酯板块周度报告-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of raw materials is expected to tighten. PX and PTA will operate strongly at a high level. Due to the tightening overseas supply and domestic device load reduction, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol are expected to improve, and it will also operate strongly at a high level. However, the end - users are quite resistant to high - priced raw materials, so the polyester sector needs to guard against negative demand feedback. Crude oil will operate strongly at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East situation as the oil price volatility intensifies [25]. - In the medium - to - long - term, there will be no new capacity put into operation in the first half of the year, and the number of device maintenance plans will increase in the second quarter, so the supply is expected to tighten. A long - position configuration is maintained in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring device maintenance. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol will improve stage - by - stage in the second quarter [26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - Iran's new supreme leader stated that Iran will not give up revenge and will continue to use the means of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US is "not ready" to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Two oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, and all Iraqi oil terminals suspended operations [2]. - TotalEnergies, a French oil giant, announced that due to the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, oil and gas fields in many Middle - Eastern countries have shut down, and its oil and gas production has decreased by 15% [2]. - The US issued a 30 - day general license for Russia - related affairs, allowing the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products stranded at sea, which alleviated market concerns about supply [2]. - The IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil, with the US releasing 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve. The release of oil reserves temporarily relieved the pressure, and the most important thing is to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - As of the week ending March 6, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 3.28 million barrels per day, refinery capacity utilization increased by 1.6 percentage points to 90.8%, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels [3]. 3.2 Polyester Sector Futures and Spot Price Trends - From March 5 to March 12, 2026, the prices of futures and spot in the polyester sector generally increased. For example, the WTI crude oil continuous futures price increased from $78.88 per barrel to $96.36 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 22.16%; the spot price of naphtha increased from $774.38 per ton to $977.25 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 26.20% [4]. 3.3 PX Situation - Domestic PX supply decreased this week. As of March 12, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.26%, a decrease of 1.90 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly output was 73.83 tons, a decrease of 2.09% [10]. - Asian PX load decreased this week. As of March 12, the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.3%, a decrease of 2.13 percentage points compared with the previous period [10]. - Next week, the domestic PX supply is expected to be relatively stable, but the supply is expected to tighten as a 2 - million - ton PX device of Zhejiang Petrochemical has a planned maintenance and Japan announced a reduction in PX long - term contract supply [10]. 3.4 PTA Situation - This week, the domestic PTA supply increased slightly. As of March 12, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 80.05%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly output was 1.5276 million tons, an increase of 6,100 tons [14]. - This week, PTA social inventories continued to accumulate. As of March 13, the available days of PTA inventory in factories were 5.94 days (+0.59 days), the available days of PTA inventory in polyester factories were 9.26 days (+2.89 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.8541 million tons (+108,400 tons) [14]. - Next week, the domestic PTA supply will decrease, and the downstream polyester device changes are limited. The demand is relatively stable, and the social inventory may continue to accumulate [14]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Situation - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol supply continued to decline. As of March 12, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 60.10% (-5.60 percentage points), the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 56.85% (-7.42 percentage points), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 65.72% (-2.47 percentage points); the weekly output was 389,400 tons (-36,300 tons) [15]. - This week, the port inventory decreased. As of March 12, the total inventory in East China ports was 927,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons compared with Monday and 39,000 tons compared with last Thursday [15]. - Next week, the domestic supply will decrease, the imported arrivals are still expected to decrease due to transportation, while the demand is relatively stable, and the port may continue to reduce inventory [15]. 3.6 Polyester End Situation - This week, the weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester end increased by 2.16 percentage points to 83.7% [16]. 3.7 Polyester Inventory Situation - This week, the filament inventory increased, and the short - fiber inventory was relatively stable [19]. 3.8 Terminal Situation - As of March 13, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 51.25% (+8.89 percentage points), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 12.48 days (+5.48 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth were 19.71 days (-3.93 days) [23]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply of raw materials is expected to tighten, and PX and PTA will operate strongly at a high level. Ethylene glycol will also operate strongly at a high level due to improved fundamentals. However, attention should be paid to negative demand feedback. Crude oil will operate strongly at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [25]. - Medium - to - long - term: A long - position configuration is maintained in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring device maintenance. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol will improve stage - by - stage in the second quarter [26]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings: Changes in the Middle East situation, the passage status of the Strait of Hormuz, the sentiment of the macro - market, the operation of upstream and downstream devices, and the recovery progress of downstream demand [26]