三大油脂周度报告-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, palm oil exports are favorable and it will operate in a volatile and upward - biased manner; rapeseed production has increased year - on - year, increasing the supply pressure in the far - month, so it will operate in a high - level volatility; the US biodiesel policy will become clearer, and domestic soybean oil inventory is still high, so soybean oil will operate in a volatile manner [75] - In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil prices are expected to be on the strong side due to plantation confiscation in Indonesia and rising drought risks; rapeseed oil prices may maintain high - level volatility in the medium - to - long - term as the long - term supply will increase; considering the cost - effectiveness of soybean oil consumption, the cost center is expected to rise [75] Summary by Directory Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the closing price of the palm oil futures main contract (P2605) rose from 9218 to 9768, a week - on - week increase of 550, or 5.97%. The spot price rose from 9160 to 9596, a week - on - week increase of 436, or 4.76% [4] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil futures main contract (OI2605) rose from 9666 to 9821, a week - on - week increase of 155, or 1.60%. The spot price rose from 10130 to 10360, a week - on - week increase of 230, or 2.27% [4] - The closing price of the soybean oil futures main contract (Y2605) rose from 8412 to 8690, a week - on - week increase of 278, or 3.30%. The spot price rose from 8620 to 8884, a week - on - week increase of 264, or 3.06% [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of March 12, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 212 yuan/ton (a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), 541 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), and - 54 yuan/ton (an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the pre - holiday), respectively [10] - As of March 13, 2026, the YP spread was - 1078 yuan/ton (a decrease of 272 yuan/ton from the pre - holiday) [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of March 6, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.6 million tons (a decrease of 0.40 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 81.21 million tons (an increase of 2.54 million tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 109.40 million tons (a decrease of 10.28 million tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 191.21 million tons (an increase of 1.86 million tons from the previous week) [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased for the second consecutive month, hitting a four - month low [20] - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first ten days of March 2026 increased by 1.55% month - on - month [20] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of March 6, 2026, the soybean inventory in national ports was 579.40 million tons (a decrease of 50.6 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 572.67 million tons (a decrease of 24.02 million tons from the previous week) [37] - As of March 13, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 626.90 yuan/ton (a decrease of 120.7 yuan/ton from the pre - holiday) [37] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of March 6, 2026, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 20 million tons (unchanged from the previous week) [52] - As of March 13, 2026, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was 212.60 yuan/ton (an increase of 100.6 yuan/ton from the pre - holiday) [52] Demand Side - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 9500 tons, and the POGO spread was 87.99 US dollars/ton (an increase of 4.25 US dollars/ton from the pre - holiday) [71] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 7.93 million tons [71] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The Trump administration plans to re - allocate at least 50% of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, and the US biodiesel policy will gradually become clear [73] - Abroad: For US soybeans, South American Brazil has a strong expectation of a bumper soybean harvest, but the overall harvesting progress is slower than in previous years. The USDA lowered the expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/2026 season from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 48.11 million tons, while the expected production in Brazil remains at 180 million tons. For palm oil, Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased for the second consecutive month, hitting a four - month low, but due to the unexpected decline in exports, the inventory decline was not as expected. High - frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days of March increased by 37% - 46% month - on - month, with good export performance [73] - Import and crushing: The soybean inventory in national ports decreased to 579.40 million tons. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [73] - Inventory: As of March 6, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 0.6 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 81.21 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 109.40 million tons [73] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils increased in resonance. The spot price of palm oil increased by 4.76% from the previous week, the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 2.27%, and the spot price of soybean oil increased by 3.06% [73] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil: This week, the three major oils increased in resonance compared with last week. As of the close, palm oil increased by 5.97%, soybean oil by 3.30%, and rapeseed oil by 1.60%. The MPOB monthly report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased for the second consecutive month, hitting a four - month low, but due to the unexpected decline in exports, the inventory decline was not as expected. High - frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days of March increased by 37% - 46% month - on - month, with good export performance. The rise in international energy prices makes biodiesel economically attractive, and Indonesia is accelerating the B50 biodiesel test, which is beneficial to palm oil prices [74] - Soybean oil: Recently, there are reports that customs has tightened the quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans. The market is worried that soybean clearance will be restricted, affecting the supply. Coupled with the rumor that the national reserve directional auction policy for soybeans in April will be adjusted, it boosts the soybean oil price. From mid - to - late March in China, oil mills in North China and Rizhao, Shandong have shutdown and maintenance plans to varying degrees [74] - Rapeseed oil: The USDA's March oilseed report shows that the global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season reached a record 95.502 million tons, an increase of 9.504 million tons year - on - year. The expectation of a loose supply suppresses the rapeseed oil market sentiment. Chinese enterprises have purchased about 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed, and the global rapeseed supply pattern has undergone a structural adjustment, alleviating the medium - to - long - term supply pressure [74]