甲醇塑料周度报告-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For methanol, in the short - term, due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, international supply reduction expectations are prolonged, import volume may decline in March and April, and with downstream demand remaining stable, it may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, after geopolitical disturbances subside, it may correct, but if inventory reduction exceeds expectations, it has the basis for a stable rise [26]. - For plastics, in the short - term, rising oil prices and geopolitical conflicts affect supply, while demand is in a full - recovery stage, so it may oscillate at a high level with high uncertainty. In the long - term, demand and inventory situations are favorable, but terminal demand is weak and high production may limit the upside [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price - The price of MA2605 futures rose from 2586 yuan/ton on March 6th to 2805 yuan/ton on March 13th, a rise of 8.47%. The MA basis rose from - 56 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, a rise of 135.71%. The price of methanol (Taicang) increased from 2530 yuan/ton to 2825 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.66%. The methanol CFR increased from 297.2 dollars/ton to 324.67 dollars/ton, a rise of 9.24% [2]. Supply - As of March 12th, the domestic methanol operating rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared to the previous period. The production was 2.0138 million tons, a decrease of 3610 tons or 0.18% compared to the previous period. This week, the extended Zhongmei plant was under maintenance with a loss of 1.8 million tons/year of production capacity, and the Guangju New Material plant resumed production with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year. Next week, some plants are expected to resume production with a total capacity of 1.05 million tons/year, which may increase the operating rate [9]. Demand - As of March 12th, the olefin operating rate remained stable at 84.08%. The gross profit was - 810.33 yuan/ton, a 18.49% increase compared to the previous period. If the gross profit continues to rise, it may promote the resumption of olefin production [12]. Inventory - As of March 11th, the port inventory was 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons or 9.05% compared to the previous period. The inland inventory was 523,200 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 5.13% compared to the previous period. The port inventory decreased significantly, and the inventory pressure was relieved [14]. Plastics Price - The price of L2605 futures rose from 7691 yuan/ton on March 6th to 8416 yuan/ton on March 13th, a rise of 9.43%. The L basis rose from - 261 yuan/ton to - 166 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.40%. The LLDPE price increased from 7430 yuan/ton to 8250 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.04%. The HDPE price increased from 7950 yuan/ton to 8450 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.29%. The LDPE price increased from 10400 yuan/ton to 10550 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.44% [2]. Supply - As of March 12th, the domestic plastic operating rate was 82.39%, a decrease of 4.52 percentage points compared to the previous period. The production was 683,200 tons, a decrease of 37,500 tons or 5.2% compared to the previous period. This week, some plants were under maintenance with a loss of about 1.11 million tons/year of production capacity, and some plants resumed production with a total capacity of about 450,000 tons/year. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [17]. Demand - As of March 12th, the downstream operating rate was 33.83%, an increase of 5.21 percentage points compared to the previous period. The recovery of packaging film and agricultural film is relatively fast, and the demand side provides stable support [21]. Inventory - As of March 11th, the social inventory was 662,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.56% compared to the previous period. The inventory of two major oil companies was 505,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons or 11.73% compared to the previous period. The inventory structure continues to diverge [24].