油料周报-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The war in the Middle East may affect the short - term import rhythm of domestic soybean meal from some regions, and high freight rates increase the import cost. In the long run, the bumper harvest in South America still exerts pressure. The downstream demand for soybean meal is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal in the short term, with slow imports and high shipping costs. The overall demand for oils is in the off - season, and the inventory situation varies among different oils [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Supply: In the short term, the import of soybean meal from some Middle Eastern regions faces support from rising freight rates. During the South American soybean harvest period, there will be a large supply pressure in the future. Trump may visit China from March to April, increasing the market's expectation of purchasing US soybeans [2] - Demand: The current demand from downstream feed mills is flat, the demand for pigs is weak, and spot transactions are poor. After the Spring Festival, the pig market is in the traditional off - season, and low pig prices suppress the expected increase in long - term feed consumption [2] - Inventory: China maintains a relatively high inventory pattern, with significant pressure on port raw materials and soybean meal finished product inventories [3] 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Supply: The supply of raw materials has increased as previously imported Australian and Canadian rapeseeds have arrived at ports, alleviating the supply of rapeseed meal at coastal oil mills. The Middle East event has affected the market's expectation of rising freight rates. In the long - term, the supply is still relatively tight compared to soybean meal [5] - Demand: As the start of aquaculture (usually from April to May) has not arrived, there is only a very small amount of demand for poultry feed substitution, and the overall demand is flat [6] - Inventory: The inventory of coastal granular rapeseed meal has rebounded slightly from the low point, and the overall inventory level is not high [7] 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - Supply: Oil mills have low short - term operating rates and low crushing volumes, which alleviate the supply pressure of soybean oil to some extent. Overseas prices are rising, and the import cost is seriously inverted, resulting in low import pressure [41] - Demand: The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in bulk oil trading volume. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand in the later stage [42] - Inventory: The overall inventory is slightly higher than the historical average, and the short - term inventory is relatively stable on a month - on - month basis. The strong short - term crude oil has driven up the prices of overseas biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil, and the domestic market has followed suit due to the increase in import costs [43] 3.3.2 Palm Oil - Supply: The March MPOB report shows that the supply has started to seasonally recover. However, due to the serious price inversion at home and abroad, near - month ship purchases are restricted, and the domestic supply increase is limited [45] - Demand: After the Spring Festival, the demand for edible oil is weak. Palm oil has a price advantage and is used as a substitute for soybean oil [46] - Inventory: The inventory in the producing areas is high. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia exceeds expectations, and the inventory in the main producing countries remains at a high level [47] 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - Supply: The output has recovered as the crushing of imported Australian rapeseeds has alleviated the supply shortage in the East and South China markets. The anti - dumping measures against Canada may lead to uncertainties in Canadian imports. The tense situation in the Middle East has also increased market concerns about rising freight rates [49] - Demand: It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand for oils is moderately weak [50] - Inventory: The inventory has shown a slowdown in the rate of decline from a low level, with a slight month - on - month increase, but it still remains relatively low [51]