镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Indonesia's reduction in nickel ore production leads to supply tightness, boosting futures price expectations [3]. - In March, the production schedules of stainless steel and ternary materials increased year - on - year, providing support on the demand side [3]. Bearish Factors - Inventory has been continuously accumulating beyond expectations, increasing market supply pressure [3]. - The recovery of terminal demand falls short of expectations, resulting in weak growth on the demand side [3]. Trading Consultation Viewpoint It is recommended to pay attention to Indonesia's policies and inventory changes and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest value of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 138,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,580 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.16%. The main contract of LME Nickel 3M is 17,765 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 315 dollars and a decrease rate of - 0.21%. The trading volume decreased by 22.06% week - on - week, and the position increased by 2.1% [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - The latest value of the main contract of stainless steel is 14,285 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 180 yuan and an increase rate of 1%. The trading volume increased by 12.33% week - on - week, and the position increased by 8.98% [4]. Spot Prices - The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 143,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,800 yuan and a decrease rate of - 1.24%. The price of imported nickel is 136,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,800 yuan and a decrease rate of - 1.30% [4]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel is 84,537 tons, an increase of 7,999 tons compared with the previous period. LME nickel inventory is 285,684 tons, a decrease of 564 tons. Stainless steel social inventory is 1,016.4 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons. Nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [5]. 3.2 Market Trends - The report presents the historical trends of nickel and stainless steel futures prices, including the closing prices of Shanghai Nickel futures main contracts, LME nickel futures, and stainless steel futures main contracts [6][8]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel - It shows the seasonal patterns of China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory of nickel plates and nickel beans, and LME nickel inventory [12][13]. 3.4 Upstream Nickel Ore - It includes the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) and the seasonal changes of nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports [15]. 3.5 Ferronickel - It shows the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China, the average price of Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival port tax - included), and the seasonal production of nickel iron in China and Indonesia [17][18][19]. 3.6 Downstream Nickel Sulfate - It presents the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel (plates), the seasonal profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, the monthly production of nickel sulfate in China, and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors [20][24][25]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - It shows the seasonal profit margins of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, the seasonal production of stainless steel, and the seasonal inventory of stainless steel [27][29][30].