铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are in a tug - of - war at key levels due to the game of long and short factors. Domestic inventory reduction and policy support provide support, while a strong dollar, high inventory, and macro uncertainties exert pressure. It is expected to show a short - term oscillatory game situation [3] - Domestic social inventory has slightly declined, with the spot inventory of electrolytic copper on March 12th decreasing by 12,300 tons compared to the 9th, and the peak - season expectation supports the buying power [2] - China's Two Sessions have released positive policy signals, planning to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for "two major" and "two new" construction, which is expected to boost subsequent metal demand [2] - The US dollar has continued to strengthen, and the resurgence of hawkish voices from the Federal Reserve has significantly cooled the market's interest - rate cut expectation, pushing up the procurement cost of non - US currency holders and suppressing risk appetite [2] - Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up crude oil prices and US Treasury yields, intensifying market concerns about the global stagflation risk and dampening the overall market sentiment [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 100,310 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.73%, the position is 190,911 lots, a decrease of 4,771 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume is 85,149 lots [4] - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 100,444 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.68%, the position is 585,403 lots, an increase of 12,999 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume is 171,009 lots [4] - The latest price of International Copper is 88,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.88%, the position is 5,792 lots, a decrease of 247 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume is 3,285 lots [4] - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 12,948.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.7%, the position is 239,014 lots, a decrease of 38,282 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume is 16,777 lots [4] - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 582.1 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.1%, the position is 116,077 lots, a decrease of 4,891 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume is 31,917 lots [4] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 100,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 805 yuan, a decrease of 0.79% [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trade is 100,895 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 685 yuan, a decrease of 0.67% [8] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 100,920 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 700 yuan, a decrease of 0.69% [8] - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 101,020 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 720 yuan, a decrease of 0.71% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is 85 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 155 yuan, a decrease of 221.43% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trade premium/discount is 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 215 yuan, a decrease of 153.57% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 210 yuan, a decrease of 150% [10] - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 125 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 190 yuan, a decrease of 292.31% [10] - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - 102.11 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 57.55 US dollars, an increase of 129.15% [10] - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - 149.63 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 44.63 US dollars, an increase of 42.5% [10] 3.3 Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest value of copper import profit and loss is 34.27 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 479.1 yuan, a decrease of 107.7% [11] - The latest value of copper concentrate TC is - 57.2 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 1.2 US dollars, an increase of 2.14% [11] - The latest value of copper - aluminum ratio is 4.0139, with a weekly change of - 0.0792, a decrease of 1.93% [11] - The latest value of refined - scrap copper price difference is 594.78 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 940 yuan, a decrease of 61.25% [11] 3.4 Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) - The latest value of SHFE Copper warehouse receipts (total) is 315,063 tons, with a weekly decline of 425 tons, a decrease of 0.13% [17] - The latest value of International Copper warehouse receipts (total) is 15,870 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,616 tons, an increase of 11.34% [17] - The latest value of SHFE Copper inventory is 425,145 tons, with a weekly increase of 33,616 tons, an increase of 8.59% [17] - The latest value of LME Copper registered warehouse receipts is 270,050 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,525 tons, an increase of 0.94% [17] - The latest value of LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts is 42,300 tons, with a weekly increase of 27,625 tons, an increase of 188.25% [17] - The latest value of LME Copper inventory is 312,350 tons, with a weekly increase of 30,150 tons, an increase of 10.68% [18] - The latest value of COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts is 375,931 tons, with a weekly decline of 4,457 tons, a decrease of 1.17% [18] - The latest value of COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts is 216,312 tons, with a weekly decline of 2,962 tons, a decrease of 1.35% [18] - The latest value of COMEX Copper inventory is 592,243 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,419 tons, a decrease of 1.24% [18] - The latest value of copper mine port inventory is 485,000 tons, with a weekly decline of 29,000 tons, a decrease of 5.64% [18] - The latest value of social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons, an increase of 1.04% [18] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) - In December 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative output was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [20] - In December 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.229 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%, and the cumulative output was 24.814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [20] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) - In February 2026, the total annual production capacity of refined copper rod was 16.49 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 38.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 16.39%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.34% [22] - In February 2026, the total annual production capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.46 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 9.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 13.63%, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.54% [22] - In February 2026, the total annual production capacity of copper plate strip was 3.57 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 35.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 31.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 22.73% [23] - In February 2026, the total annual production capacity of copper rod was 2.2865 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 22.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 32.74%, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.12% [23] - In February 2026, the total annual production capacity of copper tube was 2.783 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 51.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 21.19%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.57% [23] 3.7 Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) - In February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.310344 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import volume was 2.310344 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51% [26] - In December 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 61,340 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23%, and the cumulative import volume was 749,718 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16% [26] - In December 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 258,549 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30%, and the cumulative import volume was 3,344,251 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [26] - In December 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 238,977 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the cumulative import volume was 2,342,512 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [26] - In February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper products was 315,793.946 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8%, and the cumulative import volume was 699,598.257 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [26]