春节楼市观察：京津冀、山东、东北篇

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the real estate market in 2026, with a focus on "stabilizing expectations and shortening the adjustment period" [3][6] Core Insights - The real estate market in China is entering its sixth year of adjustment, with clear signals from policy levels aimed at stabilizing market expectations and boosting confidence [3] - The market is expected to see a gradual release of pent-up demand for both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their living conditions, particularly in Beijing [6] - The differentiation in market performance is becoming more pronounced, with varying trends observed across different regions such as Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, and Northeast China [3][4][7] Summary by Sections Beijing Market - The second-hand housing market in Beijing is dominated by low-priced transactions, with approximately 15,000 units sold in January 2026, marking a new high since 2022 [4] - New housing sales are increasingly focused on high-end and improvement-oriented buyers, with about 2,500 new units sold in January 2026 [4][5] - Policy adjustments have lowered barriers to homeownership, with a shift in buyer behavior towards more rational decision-making based on actual payment capabilities [5][6] Hebei Market - The Hebei market is under pressure, with a more rational approach to home buying and a continued bottoming phase expected in the short term [3][7] Shandong and Northeast Markets - In Shandong and Northeast regions, market differentiation is intensifying, with a clear divide between first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions [3][6] - The demand for quality products is leading the new housing market development, with a focus on better living conditions and amenities [3][6] Langfang Market - The Langfang market is characterized by price pressure and regional differentiation, with a significant focus on low-priced housing [7][8] - The second-hand market is still in a bottoming phase, with a preference for smaller units priced between 500,000 to 900,000 yuan [7][8] Baoding Market - The Baoding market shows a "watchful but less buying" trend, with promotional efforts remaining stable and limited discounts being offered [9][10] - The buyer demographic is increasingly rational, focusing on practical living factors such as unit layout and community quality [10][11] Cangzhou Market - The Cangzhou market is primarily supported by first-time buyers, with a significant portion of transactions driven by marriage and educational needs [12][14] - The market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a notable preference for lower-priced options and a trend towards reducing leverage among buyers [12][14] Zibo Market - The Zibo market is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a clear divide in demand between first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions [15][16] - The focus is shifting towards quality and safety in housing, with a notable increase in promotional activities as the market prepares for a potential recovery [15][16] Single County Market - The market in Single County is seeing a clear trend towards improvement, with a focus on quality housing driven by educational and healthcare resources [17][18] - The second-hand market is characterized by an increase in listings, with price being a key driver for transactions [17][18] Shenyang Market - The Shenyang market is maintaining stable prices for new homes, while the second-hand market continues to show signs of differentiation [19][20] - The introduction of fourth-generation residential projects is gaining traction, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing standards [21][22] Changchun Market - The Changchun market is stabilizing, with a focus on rational pricing and a strong emphasis on educational resources in core areas [22][23] - The demand is primarily driven by first-time buyers and families concerned about education, with a notable interest in quality housing options [23][24]