大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel 2605, it will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamental situation is bearish, with increasing production in March, rising domestic inventories, sufficient market supply, and weak demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy vehicle sectors. However, the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2605, it will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamental situation is neutral, with stable spot prices, strong cost support, slightly decreasing inventories, and weak demand. The basis is bullish, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On March 13, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 136,930, down 190 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 17,320, down 445; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 14,190, down 25. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 141,350, up 400; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 144,750, up 400; 1 imported nickel was 137,950, up 500; nickel beans were 140,550, up 500. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 284,658, down 1,026; nickel warehouse receipts were 56,462, up 2,558; the total inventory was 341,120, up 1,532 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,180, down 58 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On March 13, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 1,095.74 yuan per nickel point, up 3.22; the low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,675 yuan per ton, down 25 [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 14,258, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,307, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 18,081 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 136,328 yuan per ton [27].