大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2604 will be oscillating and weakening. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillating and falling, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with more long - position increases. Technically, the price closed below the moving - average system, losing short - term support. Short - term indicators like KDJ are in a weak area, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position power is rising while the short - position power is falling, with the two forces in a stalemate [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons, indicating a positive outlook [2]. - The basis is - 50 with the spot price at 24,090, showing a neutral situation [2]. - On March 13, LME zinc inventory decreased by 850 tons to 97,900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 398 tons to 86,093 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is positive [2]. Futures Market - On March 13, the trading volume of zinc futures was 135,984 lots, and the trading value was 1.64806944 billion yuan. The total open interest was 183,422 lots, an increase of 7,280 lots [3]. Spot Market - On March 13, the price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 24,040 - 24,140 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 24,020 - 24,120 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 24,070 - 24,170 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 24,090 - 24,190 yuan/ton, all down 230 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of zinc concentrate with 50% grade in various regions on March 13 was around 20,610 - 20,710 yuan/ton, all down 190 yuan/ton [10]. - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters on March 13 was between 23,790 - 24,790 yuan/ton, all down 230 yuan/ton [13]. Inventory Situation - From March 2 to March 12, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 211,900 tons to 231,100 tons [5]. - On March 13, the total SHFE zinc warrants were 86,093 tons, an increase of 398 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 97,900 tons, a decrease of 850 tons [2][6][8]. Production Situation - In February 2026, the actual output of refined zinc in China was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned output for March is 490,200 tons [15]. Processing Fee - On March 13, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was generally between 1,400 - 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 30 US dollars/dry ton [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On March 13, the total trading volume of SHFE zinc futures members was 134,852 lots, a decrease of 33,441 lots. The total long - position volume was 51,656 lots, an increase of 662 lots, and the total short - position volume was 51,871 lots, an increase of 1,772 lots [18].