格林大华期货早盘提示：全球经济-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US military's strike on Iran's oil - export hub and Iran's strong response lead to the long - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the supply gap in the oil market is huge, with high oil prices tending to be platform - based, which will impact the global economy [2][3] - The US private credit crisis is spreading to traditional banks, and the firewalls of traditional banks are facing severe tests [1][2] - The Iran war has broken the "buy - on - dips" habit of US retail investors, and the weekly purchase volume of retail investors has dropped by about 30% [1][2] - The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing from US assets" [2] - The US return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [3] - The NASDAQ futures have broken through, and factors such as AI substitution and the Middle - East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling, and the decline of US stocks may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [3] - Due to the US's continuous wrong policies, the global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is running downward [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Logic - The US military strikes Iran's oil - export hub, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade tends to be long - term. The IEA releases 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the actual global release speed may be only about 120,000 barrels per day, while the supply gap caused by the blocked Strait of Hormuz is 11 - 16 million barrels per day [2][3] - Iran will consider ending the war under two conditions: recovering all losses and the US leaving the Persian Gulf [1][2] - The US private credit crisis is spreading to traditional banks, with Deutsche Bank exposing about $30 billion in relevant risk exposures, and institutions such as BlackRock, Cliffwater, and Morgan Stanley having problems [1][2] - The Iran war has broken the "buy - on - dips" habit of US retail investors, and the weekly purchase volume of retail investors has dropped by about 30% [1][2] - The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing from US assets" [2] - The high asset prices and blind profit - seeking currently remind the JPMorgan CEO of the pre - 2008 financial crisis, and the reversal of the credit cycle may lead to an unexpected default wave [2] Impact of US Policy on Asset Classes - The US return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a subversive and far - reaching impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Stock Market Situation - The NASDAQ futures have broken through. AI's subversive substitution of many industries and the Middle - East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling. The decline of US stocks may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [3] Global Economic Trend - Due to the US's continuous wrong policies, the global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is running downward [3]