Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the bullish sentiment soared due to the shutdown of production capacities of four Indonesian enterprises, but then nickel prices fell again as the positive factors were digested and the international situation changed. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to the cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. The inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoints - For Shanghai nickel, this week, nickel prices fluctuated. The supply in March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the price of nickel iron was weakly stable, the inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - Strategies - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [7][83]. - The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [8][83]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel Ore: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $74 to $77, a rise of 4.05%; the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $69 to $72, a rise of 4.35% [11]. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased from 31,750 yuan/ton to 32,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32,500 yuan/ton [11]. - Nickel Iron: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 3,550 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%; the price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) increased from 1,090 yuan/nickel point to 1,100 yuan/nickel point, a rise of 0.92% [11]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 144,160 yuan/ton to 144,970 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.56%; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 137,060 yuan/ton to 138,020 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144,400 yuan/ton to 144,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.28% [12]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15,112.5 yuan/ton to 15,087.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17% [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price and Freight: The nickel ore price increased by $3/wet ton this week, and the ocean freight increased by $5/wet ton. - Inventory: On March 12, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.5834 million wet tons, a decrease of 659,900 wet tons or 7.14% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 8.2334 million wet tons, a decrease of 604,900 wet tons or 6.84%; the nickel ore from other countries was 350,000 wet tons, a decrease of 55,000 wet tons or 13.58% [16]. - Import: In December 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3466 million tons or 40.33% month - on - month, and an increase of 473,100 tons or 31.13% year - on - year. The total nickel ore import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [16]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price and Purchase: This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the price strengthened due to the shutdown of four Indonesian wet - smelting plants, but then fell again in the second half of the week. Downstream maintained rigid demand purchases [22]. - Output: In February 2026, China's refined nickel output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. The estimated output in March 2026 is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,724 tons or 84.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 5,100 tons or 27.88%. The net import of refined nickel in this month was 10,097.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 525.23%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 231,188.825 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133,916 tons or 137.67%. In December 2025, China's refined nickel export volume was 13,296.309 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,370 tons or 21.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3,839 tons or 22.40% [33]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2,892 tons to 284,658 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,912 tons to 63,681 tons, including 56,462 tons of futures inventory. The total inventory was 83,746 tons, an increase of 2,397 tons from the previous week [38]. 2.4. Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Price: The price of low - nickel iron decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton; the price of high - nickel iron increased by 10 yuan/nickel to 1,100 yuan/nickel [44]. - Output: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 21,100 tons in metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the output of low - nickel pig iron was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% [46]. - Import: In December 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 101,000 tons or 11.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1,000 tons or 0.1%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 1.1149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 217,200 tons or 24.2% [49]. - Inventory: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel [52]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four places) decreased by 25 yuan/ton this week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan/ton [58][59]. - Output: In February, the stainless steel crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that the stainless steel import volume was 145,000 tons, and the export volume was 485,000 tons [64]. - Inventory: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons [67]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales of New Energy Vehicles: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively [72]. - Power Battery: In February, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative output was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6% [75]. 3. Technical Analysis On the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental Viewpoints - Nickel Ore: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, the demand in Indonesia provides strong support, and the mine quotations are firm [81]. - Nickel Iron: Neutral. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost support is strong [81]. - Refined Nickel: Neutral to bearish. The output increases, and the inventory is at a high level [81]. - Stainless Steel: Neutral. The inventory decreases slightly but is still at a high level, and the consumption is weak [81]. - New Energy: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and the output decreases significantly month - on - month [81]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average; the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [83].
大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20260316
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-03-16 01:33