大越期货豆粕早报-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 3120 and 3180. The US soybeans are experiencing a short - term upward trend, influenced by the escalation of the Middle East situation and weekend technical fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal has entered a short - term, slightly bullish oscillatory pattern, affected by the US soybean trend and the short - term restriction of imported soybeans due to the intensification of the Middle East conflict [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to oscillate between 4900 and 5000. The US soybeans are in a short - term upward trend, and the domestic soybeans are rising. The escalation of the Middle East conflict has led to a decrease in the expected arrival of imported soybeans, and the short - term good demand supports the market. However, there is still uncertainty in the subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations, and the market will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 is in the 3120 - 3180 range, and the soybean A2605 is in the 4900 - 5000 range. The US soybeans are in a short - term upward trend, and the domestic soybean meal and soybeans have different trends affected by various factors such as the Middle East situation and Sino - US trade [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in the quantity of US soybeans purchased by China and the US soybean weather. The US soybean market is in a short - term upward trend, waiting for further guidance on the South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrival, and subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and the soybean meal has returned to range oscillation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation for pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal intersect [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the influence of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal is in a short - term, slightly bullish oscillation, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and further guidance on subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Transaction Data: The trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from March 5th to March 13th shows different trends in transaction prices and volumes, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuates [16]. - Price Data: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from March 6th to March 13th show different trends, and the spot prices of soybean meal are relatively strong, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level [18]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The warehouse receipt data of soybeans and soybean meal from March 4th to March 13th shows changes in the quantity of warehouse receipts [20]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - Sowing and Growth Progress: The sowing and growth progress data of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 shows the progress of soybean sowing, growth, and harvest in different regions and time periods [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026 show the changes in planting area, yield, output, and other data of US soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions of soybean meal M2605 have increased, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9]. - The main short positions of soybean A2605 have decreased, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish signal [11].