大越期货菜粕早报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2540 and 2600. The market is currently affected by factors such as the cancellation of China's restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the price. The market is expected to remain in an oscillating pattern after the digestion of overall negative factors, and attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in the range of 2540 - 2600. The fundamental situation shows that it is affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The cancellation of China's restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports is a short - term negative factor, while the escalation of the Middle East conflict is a short - term positive factor. The spot demand is in the off - season, but low inventory supports the price. The basis shows a premium, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have increased, and the market is expected to remain oscillating [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the seasonal off - season, with short - term tight supply and low demand in the spot market. The export of Canadian rapeseed to China has returned to normal, and the import volume is gradually increasing. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China - Canada trade relations, and the import of Canadian rapeseed has resumed. The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has relatively offset the impact of Ukraine's rapeseed production reduction and Russia's production increase. The escalating Middle East situation may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include good post - Spring Festival demand expectations for rapeseed meal in China and no pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal inventory. Bearish factors are the short - term off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the resumption of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price Comparison: The table shows the transaction average price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from March 5th to March 13th, as well as the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal [13]. - Futures and Spot Price Summary: It presents the prices of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605 and far - month contract 2609) and spot prices in Fujian from March 6th to March 13th [15]. - Warehouse Receipt Statistics: The table shows the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts and their changes from March 5th to March 13th [17]. - Domestic Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides data on the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of domestic rapeseed from 2016 to 2025 [19]. - Domestic Rapeseed Meal Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the beginning inventory, production, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of domestic rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 [21]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific content about position data is provided in the report. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2540 and 2600. The market is affected by multiple factors, and the overall situation is expected to remain oscillating after the digestion of negative factors, with attention on the development of China - Canada trade relations [9].