菜粕周报：中东局势升级，菜粕震荡回升-20260316

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, the seasonal off - peak demand, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. It is expected to be in a short - term volatile and upward - trending pattern, with a mid - term range - bound pattern [8][11][44]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - There is no content related to weekly prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the seasonal off - peak, with short - term tight supply and low demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed exports to China have returned to normal, and the import volume is gradually increasing [10]. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China - Canada trade relations in the short term, with tariffs being gradually cancelled and rapeseed imports resuming [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on rapeseed production is relatively offset, while the escalating Middle East situation may support commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good post - Spring Festival demand for rapeseed meal in China and no pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish factors: Short - term off - peak demand for domestic rapeseed meal and the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports due to improved China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: Imports of rapeseed will increase starting from March, with slightly fluctuating import costs [19]. - Oil mill operation and inventory: Oil mill rapeseed crushing volume and operation rate remain low. Rapeseed inventory has slightly decreased, while rapeseed meal inventory has risen from a low level [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded, while the spot is relatively weak, with a low - level spot premium [33]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [31]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal futures have increased, with capital inflows [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal has risen after a decline, affected by soybean meal and technical adjustments. The short - term off - peak demand is offset by low inventory, and the post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good, resulting in a short - term upward - trending and volatile pattern [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 2620, with a basis of 29, indicating a premium over futures [8]. - Inventory: The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 41.74 tons, a 5.97% week - on - week increase and a 20.04% year - on - year decrease [8]. - Technical analysis: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upward [8]. - Main positions: The main long positions have increased, with capital inflows [8]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal has rebounded after hitting the bottom, and it is expected to remain volatile after the overall bearish factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - Trading strategies: In the short term, the rapeseed meal futures are in a volatile and upward - trending pattern. For the RM2605 contract, it is expected to fluctuate between 2400 and 2600. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing are recommended. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested [13]. 7. Next Week's Concerns - Most important: Growth and harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].