大越期货沥青期货早报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production schedule was 2187,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 176,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.67%. The output of sample enterprises was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1,108,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.82%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the开工率 of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工率 of modified asphalt was 0.7302%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage points; the开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. Overall, current demand is below the historical average [9]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. - Overall judgment: The fundamentals are bullish; the basis is bearish; inventory is bullish; the market is bullish; the main positions are bullish. Considering that refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure, demand is affected by the off - season and is lower than expected and sluggish, inventory is continuously decreasing, and crude oil prices are strengthening with short - term cost support, it is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2606 will fluctuate in the range of 4019 - 4159 [9]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In March 2026, domestic asphalt production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The current demand of various types of asphalt and related products is generally below the historical average [9]. - Cost: Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [9]. - Comprehensive judgment: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2606 in the range of 4019 - 4159 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed price increases, with different rates of increase for each contract [15]. - Basis: On March 13, the spot price in Shandong was 3970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 119 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [9]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,940, a month - on - month increase of 9.86% [15]. - Some inter - month spreads: Different inter - month spreads showed different changes [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices in different regions [20][22]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spreads: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trends: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28]. - Crude oil cracking spreads: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026 [31][32]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price - to - price ratios: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price - to - price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price - to - price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price changes in different regions [38]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [40]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread: It presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [44]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [50]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [53]. - Venezuelan crude oil price and production: It presents the historical trends of the price of Venezuelan crude oil and its monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [58]. - Local refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [60]. - Capacity utilization rate: It shows the historical trends of the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [63]. - Maintenance loss estimation: It presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [66]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [69]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026 [73]. - Factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [76]. - Import and export: - Export and import trends: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [79]. - South Korean asphalt import price spread: It shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 to 2026 [82]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2026 [85]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and fixed - asset investment: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [91]. - New local special bonds: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026 [92]. - Infrastructure investment completion: It shows the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [92]. - Downstream machinery demand: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, and roller compactor sales from 2019 to 2026, as well as the historical trends of excavator monthly working hours from 2020 to 2026 [96][98]. - Asphalt开工率: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (including shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane开工率) from 2019 to 2026 [100][102][105]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [110].