大越期货纯碱早报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish, with the start - up load of the second - phase project of Yuangxing Energy increasing, high production at alkali plants, expected abundant overall supply; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continuing to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants at the highest level in the same period of history [2]. - The basis is bearish, with the spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe at 1,255 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 at 1,277 yuan/ton, and a basis of - 22 yuan, meaning the futures price is higher than the spot price [2]. - The inventory situation is bearish, with the national in - plant inventory of soda ash at 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory running above the five - year average [2]. - The market trend on the disk is bullish, with the price running above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line moving upwards [2]. - The main positions are bearish, with the main net short position and the short position decreasing [2]. - In the short term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the boost from the cost side [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,256 | 1,277 | 1.67% [5] | | Low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1,230 | 1,255 | 2.03% [5] | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 26 | - 22 | - 15.38% [5] | 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low, with the profit of the north China ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash at - 94.20 yuan/ton and the profit of the east China co - production process at 86 yuan/ton [14]. - The weekly industry start - up rate of soda ash is 87% [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 809,200 tons, including 428,300 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [19]. 3.4 Demand for Soda Ash - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 101.92% [22]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the start - up rate is 71.05% [25]. 3.5 Inventory of Soda Ash - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [30]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Soda Ash | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Production (10,000 tons) | Start - up Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Gap (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3,035 | 2,715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2,577 | 2,517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% [31] | | 2018 | 3,0aT (There may be an error here) | 2,583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2,474 | 2,523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% [31] | | 2019 | 3,247 | 2,804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2,679 | 2,631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% [31] | | 2020 | 3,317 | 2,757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2,655 | 2,607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% [31] | | 2021 | 3,288 | 2,892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2,842 | 2,764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% [31] | | 2022 | 3,114 | 2,944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2,749 | 2,913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% [31] | | 2023 | 3,342 | 3,228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3,166 | 3,155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% [31] | | 2024E | 3,930 | 3,650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3,536 | 3,379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% [31] | 3.7 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Less cold repair of downstream float glass, stable production; the conflict between the US and Iran boosting market bullish sentiment [4]. - Negative factors: The start - up load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy increasing, and no new maintenance expected, with production expected to remain at a high level; the reduction of production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. - Main logic: High supply of soda ash, declining terminal demand, inventory at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry not effectively improved [4].