大越期货尿素早报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with high daily production and operating rates year - on - year, expected to remain at a high level. Industrial demand is mixed, agricultural demand has reached a phased peak, and inventory has accumulated. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is predicted that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year - on - year, and daily production is expected to remain high, with overall ample supply. Industrial demand has recovered, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural phased demand has temporarily ended, and comprehensive inventory has accumulated. The overseas price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the price difference between domestic and foreign exports. The domestic price increase is limited by guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1870 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 19, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 114.7 million tons (-14.2), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate widely. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, a phased peak in agricultural demand, and inventory accumulation, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - Leverage and Risks: The bullish factors are that agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season and overseas prices are continuously strengthening. The bearish factor is that the daily production is at a historical high. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The price of the spot delivery product is 1870 (+10), Shandong spot is 1900 (+10), Henan spot is 1870 (0), and FOB China is 3881 [6]. | | Futures | The price of the 05 contract is 1889 (+14), the basis is - 19 (-4), UR01 is 1877 (+20), UR05 is 1889 (+14), and UR09 is 1912 (+22) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 8055 (+1675), UR comprehensive inventory is 114.7 million tons (-14.2), UR manufacturer inventory is 95.8 million tons (-14.1), and UR port inventory is 18.9 million tons (-0.1) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] |