大越期货玻璃早报-20260316

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is currently in a complex situation with a bearish fundamental outlook, but the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - sentiment boost. The overall expectation is that glass will show a low - level, weak and oscillatory trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased from 1113 yuan/ton to 1135 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.98%. The spot price of Shahe safety large plates rose from 972 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. The main basis changed from - 141 yuan/ton to - 159 yuan/ton, a change of 12.77% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 976 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton higher than the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but the cold - repair is less than expected, and the supply is at a low level [2]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 71.05%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [16][18]. Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period, and the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [2][4][22]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 75.849 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.76% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][37]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows that the production and consumption have different growth rates each year, and the net import ratio also fluctuates. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [38].