大越期货纯碱周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the main contract SA2605 increased by 2.82% compared to the previous week, reaching 1,277 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week. The conflict between the US and Iran continued to escalate, and the bullish sentiment in the market persisted. In terms of supply, there were few maintenance operations in soda ash enterprises recently, with high operating rates and high - level overall supply. The expected output next week is 810,000 tons, and the operating rate is 87%. On the demand side, the spot and futures purchase volume increased significantly recently, the overall downstream consumption remained stable, there was no obvious new production capacity, and the pressure on finished products and funds continued. The daily melting volume of float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 150 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons. As of March 12, the inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory was at the highest level in the same period in history. In general, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict boosted the sentiment of the overall commodities, and the soda ash is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View - The soda ash futures fluctuated upward last week, with the main contract SA2605 closing 2.82% higher than the previous week at 1,277 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week. The US - Iran conflict led to continued bullish sentiment. Supply was at a high level, with expected next - week output of 810,000 tons and an operating rate of 87%. Demand saw increased purchase volume, stable downstream consumption, no new capacity, and continued pressure on finished products and funds. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 150 tons to 146,900 tons, while photovoltaic glass increased by 1,600 tons to 89,400 tons. Factory inventory decreased by 0.80% to 1.9317 million tons, at a historical high for the same period. Short - term soda ash is expected to fluctuate upward [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Likely to be beneficial: Downstream float glass has few cold repairs, and the output remains stable [5]. - Likely to be negative: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased its operating load, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6][7]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,242 | 1,220 | - 22 | | Current Value | 1,277 | 1,255 | - 22 | | Change Rate | 2.82% | 2.87% | 0.00% | [8] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week [14]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [17]. 3.6 Soda Ash Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87% [20]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 809,200 tons, including 428,300 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [22]. 3.7 Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons, including Anhui Hongsifang (200,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (400,000 tons in the first - phase 1, 2, 3 lines and 1 million tons in other phases), Henan Lingshan (2 million tons in the fifth phase), and Chongqing Xiangyu (200,000 tons). - In 2024, the total new production capacity was 1.8 million tons, including Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (1 million tons in the first - phase 4 line), Henan Jinshan (500,000 tons in the sixth phase), and Henan Zhongda (300,000 tons). - In 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons, including Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang (600,000 tons), Lianyungang Jianye (1.1 million tons), Hubei Shuanghuan Phase II (400,000 tons), Hubei Xindu (600,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (2.8 million tons in the second phase), and Henan Jinshan (2 million tons in the seventh phase) [23]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 101.92% [26]. - Soda Ash Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the operating rate is 71.05% [29]. - Photovoltaic Glass: No specific data provided in the given text. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3032 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [35]