大越期货玻璃周报-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract FG2605 closing 4.42% higher than the previous week at 1,135 yuan/ton. The spot price of 5mm white glass大板 in Hebei Shahe increased by 2.52% to 976 yuan/ton [2][6][11]. - The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has continued the bullish sentiment in the market. In terms of glass supply, raw material prices have rebounded, and glass production profits have declined. There is an expectation that some float glass production lines will shut down next week, and the weekly output may shrink, but the industry's motivation for active production cuts remains insufficient. As of last week, there were 209 float glass production lines in operation, with an operating rate of 71.05% and a daily melting volume of 146,900 tons, indicating a low supply level [2]. - In terms of demand, the recovery of downstream demand has been slow, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises have been poor. However, some enterprises replenished their stocks moderately under the stimulation of the increase in the price of original glass during the week. It is expected that they will be more cautious in purchasing next week, mainly for rigid demand [2]. - As of March 12, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 75.849 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.76% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historically high level for the same period. Overall, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict has boosted sentiment, and it is expected that glass will maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract FG2605 was 1,135 yuan/ton, a 4.42% increase from the previous week; the spot benchmark price was 976 yuan/ton, a 2.52% increase; the main basis was - 159 yuan/ton, a 17.78% increase [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass大板 in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 976 yuan/ton, a 2.52% increase from the previous week [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit - Glass production profit: Not detailed in the content, only mentioned that raw material prices have rebounded and production profits have declined [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Glass production line operation, capacity, and output: There were 209 float glass production lines in operation, with an operating rate of 71.05%, and the number of operating production lines was at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume was 146,900 tons, and the capacity was at a historically low level for the same period [17][19]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Float glass monthly consumption: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 469,440 tons [23]. - Other demand - related indicators such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the operation and order situation of downstream processing plants, are mentioned but not detailed in the content. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 75.849 million weight boxes, a 4.76% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows the data of production, consumption, and other indicators, as well as the growth rates of production and consumption, and the proportion of net imports in different years [38].