大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260316

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 16, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Core Views - LLDPE: The overall fundamentals are bullish, with the main contract's disk expected to continue strengthening. Due to the Iran situation disturbing oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4]. - PP: The overall fundamentals are bullish, with the main contract's disk expected to continue strengthening. Affected by the Iran situation and strong external crude oil, with neutral inventory and recovering downstream demand, it is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7]. Industry Analysis LLDPE - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is basically interrupted, and many countries confirm to release strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing demand for agricultural films has started, but high - priced raw materials have led to many downstream enterprises waiting and less transactions. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The starting rate of pipes remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8250 (-200) [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -166, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.0%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Leverage and Risk: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues. The main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is basically interrupted, and many countries confirm to release strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units are shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profits. The starting rate of bopp has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8650 (+0) [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 47, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.5%, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), neutral [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - Leverage and Risk: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues. The main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Market Data LLDPE | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product Price | 8250, change: -200 [9] | | LL Import US Dollar Price | 856, change: 0 [9] | | LL Import Conversion Price | 7226, change: 0 [9] | | LL Import Price Difference | 1024, change: -200 [9] | | 05 Contract Price | 8416, change: 180 [9] | | L01 Contract Price | 7866, change: 147 [9] | | L05 Contract Price | 8416, change: 180 [9] | | L09 Contract Price | 8145, change: 211 [9] | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | 7901, change: -200 [9] | | PE Comprehensive Factory Warehouse Inventory | 62.5 [9] | | PE Social Inventory | 66.3 [9] | PP | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product Price | 8650, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import US Dollar Price | 1180, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import Conversion Price | 9904, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import Price Difference | -1254, change: 0 [9] | | 05 Contract Price | 8603, change: 300 [9] | | PP01 Contract Price | 7646, change: 198 [9] | | PP05 Contract Price | 8603, change: 300 [9] | | PP09 Contract Price | 8068, change: 317 [9] | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | 19427, change: -240 [9] | | PP Comprehensive Factory Warehouse Inventory | 65.8 [9] | | PP Social Inventory | 32.4 [9] | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Polyethylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PE Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 1869.5 | 1599.84 | 1379.72 | 46.3% | 2979.56 | 39.55 | 2979.56 | | | 2019 | | 1964.5 | 5.1% | 1765.08 | 1638.16 | 48.1% | 3403.24 | 36.61 | 3406.18 | 14.3% | | 2020 | | 2314.5 | 17.8% | 2008.47 | 1828.16 | 47.7% | 3836.63 | 37.83 | 3835.41 | 12.6% | | 2021 | | 2754.5 | 19.0% | 2328.34 | 1407.76 | 37.7% | 3736.1 | 37.57 | 3736.36 | -2.6% | | 2022 | | 2929.5 | 6.4% | 2532.19 | 1274.55 | 33.5% | 3806.74 | 38.93 | 3805.38 | 1.8% | | 2023 | | 3189.5 | 8.9% | 2807.37 | 1264.72 | 31.1% | 4072.09 | 41.43 | 4069.59 | 6.9% | | 2024 | | 3584.5 | 12.4% | 2773.8 | 1360.32 | 32.9% | 4134.12 | 47.8 | 4127.75 | 1.4% | | 2025E | | 4319.5 | 20.5% | | | | | | | [14] Polypropylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [16]