集运早报-20260316

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current European line is still in the off - season cargo - collection period. The geopolitical impact is mainly reflected in the increase in fuel costs. The subsequent situation requires close tracking of global ship refueling and port congestion. The core variable in the future is the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. If it is blocked for a long time, it will disrupt the global supply chain and harm the European economy. The transmission path of this geopolitical event to the European line is complex and highly uncertain. It is recommended to avoid unilateral high - volatility risks and look for arbitrage opportunities from the monthly spread valuation. A 6 - 7 reverse spread can be arranged, but attention should be paid to the poor liquidity of the 07 contract [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - Contract Price and Change: EC2604 closed at 1970.1, down 2.48%; EC2605 closed at 2215.5, up 0.41%; EC2606 closed at 2440.0, up 0.13%; EC2607 closed at 2522.5, up 0.66%; EC2608 closed at 2368.0, down 0.46%; EC2609 closed at 1728.1, down 1.81%; EC2610 closed at 1581.0, up 0.04%; EC2612 closed at 1868.2, down 0.36% [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, and the open interest of most contracts has decreased. For example, the open interest of EC2604 decreased by 2367, and that of EC2605 decreased by 87 [2]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spreads such as EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 have different changes compared with the previous days and weeks. For example, EC2604 - 2606 was - 469.9, with a day - on - day decrease of 53.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 212.3 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Situation - Spot Price Index: The spot price index of the European line (OCEAN) on March 9 was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on March 13 was 1618 US dollars/TEU, up 11.43% from the previous period [2]. - Shipping Company Price Announcements: In late March, OA and PA alliances and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars. In Week 12, the average price was 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market. In Week 13, MSK's price remained flat at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars [3]. 3.3 News - War - related Statements: On March 15, the Iranian Foreign Minister said that the end of the war depends on two conditions. The Israeli military spokesman said that the military operation against Iran will last at least three more weeks. On March 16, Trump warned of a new strike on Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island [4]. - Multinational Convoy Plan: On March 16, US media reported that the US government plans to announce a multinational joint convoy in the Strait of Hormuz as early as this week, but many countries are hesitant to participate before the end of hostilities [5].