大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - From the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 105,780 tons, a 5.22% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,019 tons, a 1.17% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - In terms of cost, the CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 146,320 - 157,640 [9]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, and maintenance plans, and the start time of industrial clearance [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply and Demand Analysis: The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, and the demand is expected to strengthen. The cost situation has changed, and the demand - dominated pattern has weakened. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in a certain range [8][9]. - Positive and Negative Factors: Positive factors include the production reduction plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 157,651 yuan/ton, a 0.65% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 761 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica is 151,428 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a production profit of 1,922 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Basis: On March 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 6,920 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory is 16,292 tons, a 6.77% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 45,647 tons, a 4.32% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 37,020 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory is 98,959 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, showing a bearish situation [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of various lithium - related products have different degrees of changes. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.68% day - on - day, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.63% day - on - day [16]. - Supply and Demand Data: The supply - side data shows changes in production, import, and export, while the demand - side data shows changes in production, inventory, and consumption in related industries such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and power batteries [19]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore (6% CIF) has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed in different years [26]. - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown different trends [26]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [29][30]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) have changed over time [33]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries and regions has changed, and the export volume is relatively small [33][36]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different situations in different months, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [39]. 3.6 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed over time [42]. - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed in different years [42]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [44]. 3.7 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling materials to produce lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have changed over time [47][50]. - Processing Cost Composition: The processing cost composition of lithium mica concentrate and spodumene includes energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items [47]. - Other Profits: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the carbonation profit of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and the export profit of lithium hydroxide have also changed over time [47][50][53]. 3.8 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed over time [55]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream has changed over time [55]. 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Price and Production: The price of power batteries has changed over time, and the monthly production of power battery cells (ternary and lithium iron phosphate) has also changed [59]. - Loading and Shipment: The monthly loading volume and shipment volume of power batteries (ternary and lithium iron phosphate) have changed over time [59]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed in different years [59]. 3.10 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Inventory and Tender: The inventory of lithium battery cells (ternary, lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries) and the EPC tender situation of energy - storage systems have changed over time [61]. - Production and Shipment: The monthly production and shipment volume of energy - storage battery cells have changed over time [61]. - Cost: The cost price of 314Ah lithium iron phosphate energy - storage battery cells has changed over time [61]. 3.11 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time, and the cost and profit of producing ternary precursors have also changed [64]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: The capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary precursors have changed over time [64]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different situations in different months, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [67]. 3.12 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost: The price of ternary materials has changed over time, and the cost and profit of producing ternary materials have also changed [70]. - Production and Inventory: The weekly production and inventory of ternary materials have changed over time [70][72]. - Export and Import: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed in different years [72]. 3.13 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has changed over time, and the production cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium have also changed [74]. - Production and Inventory: The monthly production and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [74][77][79]. - Export: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has changed in different years [77]. 3.14 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) have changed over time [82]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed over time [83]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have changed over time [86].