大越期货甲醇早报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the Middle East war situation, it is expected that short - term news factors will still dominate the operation of the domestic methanol market. If the Iran war ends in the short term, international oil prices will correct, and there is a possibility of a decline in inland methanol; if the war expands and escalates, international oil prices are expected to break through and rise, and inland methanol is expected to run strongly under the influence of sentiment. In the port area, the petrochemical industry has more obvious advantages under the supply - cut crisis, and the support for the rise of methanol comes more from inventory reduction, sentiment, and chemical resonance. It is expected that the methanol market will fluctuate at a high level this week, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly. MA2605 is expected to run in the range of 2720 - 2900 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are affected by the Middle East war situation. The procurement attitude of some traditional downstream users towards high - priced raw materials is cautious, and upstream methanol enterprises have a certain inventory. The port methanol is supported by factors such as inventory reduction, sentiment, and chemical resonance. The basis is 50, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of March 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports decreased by 113,700 tons, and the total available circulating sources in coastal areas decreased by 41,800 tons. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line. The main position is net long, and it has changed from short to long. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 running in the range of 2720 - 2900 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some devices have stopped or reduced their loads; the methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and the methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; the methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced their inventories, and the current inventory is not large, and some enterprises even limit sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde will gradually stop production and take holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in the port area have stopped, and the local demand has weakened significantly; most downstream users have completed their pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand has decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 689 yuan/ton (unchanged), CFR China Main Port is 381 US dollars/ton (up 60 US dollars/ton), the import cost is 3216 yuan/ton (up 492 yuan/ton), CFR Southeast Asia is 512 US dollars/ton (up 55 US dollars/ton), and the prices in different domestic regions have different changes. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2805 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton), the number of registered warrants is 11,513 (up 1180), and the number of effective forecasts is 147 (down 1180). The basis is 20 yuan/ton (down 69 yuan/ton), the import spread is 411 yuan/ton (up 413 yuan/ton), and there are also corresponding changes in other spreads [8]. - Price Changes of Domestic Methanol: From March 6th to March 13th, the prices of methanol in Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have increased, with increases of 11.66%, 5.41%, 7.87%, and 12.65% respectively, while the price in Shandong has remained unchanged [9]. - Methanol Basis: From March 6th to March 13th, the spot price increased by 11.66%, the futures price increased by 8.47%, and the basis changed from - 56 to 20 [11]. - Production Profits of Different Methanol Processes: From March 6th to March 13th, the profit of coal - based methanol increased by 203 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 512 yuan/ton [22]. - Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load: The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [23]. - External Methanol Prices and Spreads: From March 6th to March 13th, CFR China increased by 23.30% to 381 US dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia increased by 27.72% to 511.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread between them changed from - 91.5 to - 130.5 US dollars/ton [26]. - Methanol Import Spreads: From March 6th to March 13th, the spot price increased by 11.66%, the import cost increased by 22.38%, and the import spread changed from - 97 to - 391 yuan/ton [29]. - Prices of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products: From March 6th to March 13th, the price of formaldehyde remained unchanged, the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged, and the price of acetic acid increased by 8.47% [32]. - Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products: The production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 53 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.01%; the production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.45%; the production profit of acetic acid increased by 88 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 1.29%; the production profit of MTO decreased by 944 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 2.27% [37][40][45][50]. - Methanol Port Inventory: As of March 13th, the inventory in the East China port was 548,000 tons (down 72,000 tons), and the inventory in the South China port was 332,600 tons (down 41,700 tons) [8]. - Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: From March 6th to March 13th, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 22.53% to 11,513, and the number of effective forecasts remained at 147 [56]. - Methanol Balance Sheet: It shows the production, demand, import, inventory, and supply - demand difference of methanol from November 2022 to October 2024 [58]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance: Multiple domestic methanol enterprises in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdown due to faults or other reasons [59]. - Overseas Methanol Device Operation: Some methanol devices in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries and regions are in different states of operation, including normal operation, restarting, and maintenance [60]. - Olefin Device Operation: Olefin devices in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, and Northeast are in different states of operation, including normal operation, maintenance, and shutdown [61].