大越期货原油早报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trend of oil prices still shows an upward trend, but the release of strategic reserves suppresses the early - morning oil prices. Investors should pay attention to position control. For SC2604, operate in the range of 780 - 800, and wait for opportunities to short at high levels in the long - term [3]. - In the short term, continue to focus on changes in the geopolitical situation, and wait for the situation to ease in the medium - and long - term before entering the market for a reversal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: US officials predict that the war between the US, Israel and Iran will end in weeks and energy costs will decline. Gulf countries have cut daily crude oil production by at least 10 million barrels. The US bombing of Kharg Island has expanded the conflict, but its exports are still normal [3]. - Basis: On March 13, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $145.82 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $100.83 per barrel. The basis was 8.36 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - Inventory: From the week ending March 6, US API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.38 million barrels), EIA inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.055 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels. As of March 13, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of March 10, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. - Expectation: US President Trump threatened to strike Iran's oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. Iran's attitude is tough, and the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is slow. The IEA has coordinated member countries to release 271.7 million barrels of strategic reserves, with Asia taking the lead and Europe and America expected to release at the end of the month [3]. 3.2 Recent News - IEA Reserve Release: The IEA will release record - high reserves. Oil will be immediately released in Asia, while that for Europe and America will be released by the end of March. About 72% of the committed release is crude oil, and 28% is petroleum products [5]. - US - Iran Negotiation: US President Trump said that Iran is willing to negotiate a cease - fire, but the current conditions are not good enough, so the US will not reach an agreement for the time being. He also said that the US and Israel's strikes have weakened Iran's military capabilities and that the US has attacked Kharg Island [5]. - US Reserve Release: The Trump administration has launched a program to release 86 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic reserve, which is part of a 172 - million - barrel release plan and is expected to be completed in four months [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: Strait passage is not smooth; the Middle East situation deteriorates [6]. - Likely to Fall: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of 9.22%, 9.72%, 9.72%, and 13.49% respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have all increased, with increases of 10.18%, 9.72%, 12.51%, 8.39%, and 12.64% respectively [9]. - API Inventory: As of March 6, API inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels [10]. - EIA Inventory: As of March 6, EIA inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels [12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of March 10, the net long position was 228,015, an increase of 55,865 [15]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of March 10, the net long position was 351,032, an increase of 65,438 [17].