大越期货甲醇周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the Middle East war situation, it is expected that in the short term, news factors will still dominate the operation of the domestic methanol market. In the inland region, some traditional downstream users are cautious about purchasing high - priced raw materials, while upstream methanol enterprises have a certain inventory. If the Iran war ends in the short term, international oil prices will回调, and there is a possibility of a decline in inland methanol under the impact of sentiment. If the Iran war expands and escalates, international oil prices are expected to break through and rise, and inland methanol is expected to run strongly under the influence of sentiment. In the port area, under the crisis of supply interruption, the advantages of petrochemical industry are more obvious, and the support for the rise of methanol comes more from inventory reduction, sentiment, and chemical resonance. Currently, it seems that Trump wants to get out as soon as possible, but Iran is persistent and continues to control the Strait of Hormuz. It is expected that under the continuous support of the resonance effect of the chemical sector, the methanol market will fluctuate at a high level next week [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Review - The report analyzes the impact of the Middle East war situation on the domestic methanol market. It also provides a forecast of the methanol market based on different scenarios of the war's development [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Domestic Methanol Spot Price: Prices in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price in Jiangsu increased by 11.66% from March 6th to March 13th, while the price in Lunan remained unchanged [7]. - Methanol Futures and Basis: The futures price increased by 8.47% from March 6th to March 13th, and the basis showed corresponding changes [9]. - Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes: Coal - based production profit increased by 203 from March 6th to March 13th, natural gas - based production profit remained at - 40, and coke oven gas - based production profit increased by 512 [11]. - Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load: The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% compared with last week, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% [13]. - Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads: CFR China price increased by 23.30%, CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 27.72%, and the spread between them changed [16]. - Methanol Import Spread: The import cost increased by 22.38%, and the import spread changed significantly, from - 97 on March 6th to - 391 on March 13th [18]. - Prices of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products: The price of acetic acid increased by 8.47%, while the prices of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [25]. - Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products: Each downstream product showed different profit and load changes. For example, the profit of formaldehyde production decreased by 53, the profit of dimethyl ether production decreased by 170, and the profit of acetic acid production increased by 88 [26][28][32]. - MTO Production Profits and Loads: The MTO production profit decreased by 944, and the MTO device load decreased [36]. - Methanol Port Inventory: The inventory in the East China port decreased by 7.20, and the inventory in the South China port decreased by 4.17 [37]. - Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: The warehouse receipts increased by 22.53%, and the effective forecast remained at 0.00% [40]. 3.3 Maintenance Conditions - Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance: Multiple enterprises in different regions such as northwest, east, southwest, and northeast are in maintenance, with different start and end times, production capacities, and maintenance losses [42]. - Foreign Methanol Device Operation: Enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation conditions, including normal operation, restart, and maintenance [43]. - Olefin Device Operation: Olefin devices in different regions such as northwest, east, central, and northeast have different operation conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned operation changes [44].