《有色》日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Zinc: The supply - demand fundamentals are generally good, but high domestic inventories restrict the upside space. With limited short - term macro - level positives, the short - term price may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to focus on zinc ore TC, demand marginal changes, and macro - level guidance, with the main contract supported at 23800 - 24000 [2]. - Copper: The short - term price is under pressure due to the resolution of the previous inventory structural contradiction and reduced market risk appetite. There may be a phased adjustment risk, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction logic remains unchanged. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. It is advisable to follow the US - Iran conflict and overseas inventory accumulation, with the main contract supported around 98000 [4]. - Nickel: Overseas macro uncertainties increase, and raw material - end disturbances support the price. Demand has slightly improved, but high inventories still pose a constraint. The bottom support is strong, but further upward drivers need to be transmitted to the real - world end. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134000 - 145000 [5]. - Stainless Steel: Overseas macro risks are uncertain, raw material supply is tight with strong cost support. Steel mills' production schedules are increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. There is a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 14000 - 14500 [8]. - Aluminum: The alumina market may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. Aluminum prices will fluctuate at high levels with news changes, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to operate in the range of 24000 - 26000 [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: High raw material costs support the ADC12 price, but demand improvement is slow, and the negative feedback of high prices is emerging. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 24500 [12]. - Tin: In the short term, tin prices are expected to be weak. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainties, and the trading momentum of the new energy sector is weakening. The fundamentals remain resilient, but the optimistic demand expectations have been mostly digested. The price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main contract in the range of 148000 - 162000 [16]. - Industrial Silicon: Cost increases may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. Supply is growing rapidly, demand is slightly increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to operate with caution, stay on the sidelines, or build long positions at low prices [19]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and prices are under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to demand - side changes. The long - term development of photovoltaic demand may be favorable, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan from the previous value, with a decline of 0.95%. The import profit and loss is - 20.66 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread shows different changes [2]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan, a decline of 0.15%. The import profit and loss is 34 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread also has corresponding changes [4]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 141350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan, an increase of 0.28%. The import profit and loss of futures is 945 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread varies [5]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread shows different trends [8]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price is 25120 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 4222 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread has changed [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 25200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread has corresponding changes [12]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin price is 392650 yuan/ton, down 6050 yuan, a decline of 1.54%. The import profit and loss is - 13594.90 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread varies [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 159000 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan, an increase of 0.63%. The monthly spread has changed [16]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread shows different trends [19]. - Polysilicon: The average price of N - type re - feedstock is 0 yuan/kilogram, down 46000 yuan, a decline of 100%. The monthly spread has corresponding changes [21]. Fundamental Data - Zinc: In February, refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 53%, up 13.94 percentage points [2]. - Copper: In February, electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13% month - on - month. The electrolytic copper rod start - up rate was 72.92%, up 10.45 percentage points [4]. - Nickel: China's refined nickel production in a certain period was 32600 tons, down 7.45% month - on - month. SHFE inventory increased by 3.10% week - on - week [5]. - Stainless Steel: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 190.08 million tons, up 44.07% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.19% week - on - week [8]. - Aluminum: In February, alumina production was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month. The aluminum profile start - up rate was 51.80%, up 16.40 percentage points [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31% month - on - month. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 31.34%, down 41.87% week - on - week [12]. - Tin: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81% year - on - year. In February, SMM refined tin production was 15100 tons, down 23.91% month - on - month [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: In February, lithium carbonate production was 83090 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate start - up rate was 48%, down 14.29% month - on - month [16]. - Industrial Silicon: The national industrial silicon production was 27.57 million tons, down 26.58% year - on - year. The national start - up rate was 38.02%, down 21.33% year - on - year [19]. - Polysilicon: The weekly polysilicon production was 1.90 million tons, up 1.06% week - on - week. The monthly polysilicon production was 7.70 million tons, down 23.61% year - on - year [21].