《黑色》日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - This week, the steel price center has risen. The steel price fluctuated upward due to the impact of iron ore's upward - then - downward movement caused by port liquidity interference. Steel production and demand are in a seasonal recovery stage. Plate inventories decreased this week, while building material inventories increased. Total inventories increased slowly and are expected to turn to seasonal destocking next week. Production is expected to rise next week after being at a low level last week due to environmental protection restrictions. Demand is gradually recovering, and attention should be paid to the height of the recovery in apparent demand. Domestic demand expectations are weak, and exports remain high. Steel + billet exports are expected to be flat year - on - year. The Middle East issue has affected shipping and short - term steel shipments, but Chinese steel has replaced Iranian billet exports, and billet export orders are acceptable. Further price increases need to observe variables in the coking coal supply, and the upward driving force from the steel's own supply - demand fundamentals is not strong [1]. Iron Ore Industry - From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, with significant declines in Brazil and non - mainstream mines. Rainfall in southeastern Brazil affected some shipments, and although the impact of future rainfall will weaken, the iron ore arrivals in China may increase due to some ships originally bound for the Middle East diverting to China because of the US - Iran situation. On the demand side, the molten iron output continued to decline, but it is expected to gradually recover next week. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased slightly. The inventory accumulation at ports has narrowed, and it is expected to turn into a destocking pattern. In the short term, the main iron ore contract may fluctuate within the range of 750 - 820 yuan/ton [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the futures price fluctuated upward last week. The first - round price cut by mainstream steel mills on March 4 was successfully implemented on March 6, and it is expected to bottom out and stabilize. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking profits have declined. Coke production decreased slightly during the Two Sessions and will gradually recover after. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, molten iron output will rise, and steel prices rebounded from a low level, and restocking demand will gradually recover. In terms of inventory, steel mills reduced inventory, while coking plants and ports increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The supply and demand of coke are basically balanced in the short term. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - For coking coal, the futures price fluctuated upward last week. Spot prices showed a mixed trend, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and coal daily output is increasing. Imported coal port inventories are accumulating. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, molten iron output increased, and coke production also increased. Steel mills cut coke prices on March 4. In terms of inventory, coal mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while coking plants, steel mills, coal washing plants, and ports are reducing inventory. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing, but the upstream inventory accumulation is bearish. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with a reference range of 1100 - 1250, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry - For silicon manganese, supply increased slightly as production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained stable, and Yunnan复产 due to electricity price subsidies. Five new silicon manganese plants are expected to come on - stream in the second quarter, and supply will increase marginally. Demand was affected by environmental protection restrictions, causing a significant decline in molten iron output, but it will rise as terminal demand recovers and steel mills resume production. The short - term steel exports to the Middle East are blocked due to the US - Iran conflict, but there may be an export substitution effect in the long term. The manganese ore supply is in a tight - balance state, and the cost will increase due to the US - Iran conflict. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5800 - 6400. - For silicon iron, supply increased slightly as some regions resumed production. The magnesium - aluminum daily output is at a relatively high level but decreased this week, and the demand support weakened. The cost is supported by stable semi - coke prices, and the profit levels in different regions have been repaired. Affected by the international geopolitical conflict, the market sentiment is changeable, and the price may fluctuate widely in the range of 5700 - 6200 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also rose. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed different changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 19 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different changes [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 6.3 to 221.2 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. The output of five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 821.0 tons, an increase of 3.0%. Rebar output increased by 22.0 to 195.3 tons, an increase of 12.7%, with electric - furnace output increasing by 148.2% and converter output increasing by 2.9%. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.9 to 295.3 tons, a decrease of 1.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 22.9 to 1974.9 tons, an increase of 1.2%. Rebar inventory increased by 18.5 to 894.2 tons, an increase of 2.1%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly by 0.1 to 471.6 tons, a decrease of 0.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building material trading volume increased by 1.3 to 10.1 tons, an increase of 14.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 106.7 to 798.1 tons, an increase of 15.4%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 78.6 to 176.8 tons, an increase of 80.0%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 13.8 to 295.4 tons, an increase of 4.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the basis of the 05 contract for some iron ore powders decreased. The 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price also increased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals (weekly) increased by 463.0 to 2609.9 tons, an increase of 21.6%. The global shipments (weekly) decreased by 442.9 to 2897.8 tons, a decrease of 13.3%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2200.9 to 9763.8 tons, a decrease of 18.4% [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output (weekly) decreased by 6.4 to 221.2 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) increased by 6.8 to 317.9 tons, an increase of 2.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.1 to 6072.2 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 69.7 to 17187.52 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory (weekly) decreased by 82.5 to 8929.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The 64 - steel - mill inventory available days (weekly) remained unchanged at 23.0 days [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of some coke contracts increased, and the basis of some contracts changed. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) decreased by 17 [7]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) increased [7]. Supply: Coke Production (Weekly) - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 - steel - mill coke production remained unchanged [7]. Demand: Molten Iron Output (Weekly) - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output decreased by 6.4 to 221.2 tons, a decrease of 2.8% [7]. Coke Inventory Changes (Weekly) - The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 0.3 to 984.4 tons, a decrease of 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 9.9 to 100.4 tons, a decrease of 8.9%. The 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 16.3 to 687.6 tons, an increase of 2.4%. The port inventory decreased by 6.7 to 196.4 tons, a decrease of 3.3% [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of some coking coal contracts increased, and the basis of some contracts changed. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) increased by 3 [7]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs FOB price decreased slightly, and the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased [7]. Supply: Fenwei Sample Coal Mine Production (Weekly) - The raw coal output increased by 12.6 to 873.9 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the clean coal output increased by 2.7 to 445.9 tons, an increase of 0.6% [7]. Demand: Coke Production (Weekly) - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 - steel - mill coke production remained unchanged [7]. Coking Coal Inventory Changes (Weekly) - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 11.2 to 117.8 tons, a decrease of 8.7%. The all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 20.0 to 969.4 tons, an increase of 2.1%. The 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 2.0 to 777.6 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The port inventory decreased slightly by 0.1 to 267.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [7]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry Futures and Spot - The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract decreased by 34.0 to 5888.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 14.0 to 6176.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%. The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions showed different changes [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese decreased by 21.0 to 6058.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3%. The production cost of Guangxi silicon manganese increased by 18.7 to 6308.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.3%. The production profit of Inner Mongolia silicon iron increased by 21.0 to - 158.3 yuan/ton, an increase of - 11.7% [8]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipments (weekly) increased by 44.9 to 122.7 tons, an increase of 57.6%. The manganese ore arrivals (weekly) increased by 0.8 to 44.8 tons, an increase of 1.8%. The manganese ore desilting volume (weekly) increased by 53.7 to 129.0 tons, an increase of 50.7% [8]. Supply - The silicon iron output (weekly) increased by 0.1 to 9.7 tons, an increase of 0.9%. The silicon manganese output (weekly) increased by 0.2 to 19.8 tons, an increase of 0.94%. The silicon iron production enterprise's operating rate (weekly) increased by 1.3 to 27.9%, an increase of 4.94%. The silicon manganese operating rate increased by 1.2 to 36.1%, an increase of 0.4% [8]. Demand - The silicon iron demand (weekly) increased by 0.1 to 1.9 tons, an increase of 5.94%. The silicon manganese demand (Steel - Union calculation) increased by 0.5 to 11.7 tons, an increase of 4.9%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output (weekly) decreased by 6.4 to 221.2 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. The blast - furnace operating rate (weekly) increased by 0.6 to 78.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The Steel - Union five - major steel products output (weekly) increased by 23.7 to 821.0 tons, an increase of 3.0% [8]. Inventory Changes - The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises (weekly) decreased by 0.5 to 6.1 tons, a decrease of 7.7%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises (weekly) decreased by 1.2 to 37.6 tons, a decrease of 3.0% [8].