银行业：政策扰动效应边际减弱，信贷有望进入筑底反弹期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong market rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to enter a phase of stabilization and rebound in credit growth, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and diminishing policy disturbances [5][57]. - The decline in household loans has been a significant factor in the overall slowdown of loan growth, with household loan growth dropping from 15.53% in 2019 to 0.53% in 2025, contributing approximately 4.5 percentage points to the overall loan growth decline [15][19]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in corporate loans across various industries, with infrastructure loans showing the largest scale and relatively stable growth, while manufacturing and commercial services have seen notable increases since 2020 [2][28]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Changes in Overall Banking Loan Landscape - The banking loan landscape has experienced a simultaneous decline in both volume and price since the post-financial crisis era, with loan growth rates decreasing from a peak of 34.44% in 2009 to 6.10% by January 2026 [11][12]. - Household loans, particularly housing loans, have been the primary driver of this decline, with household loan growth rates showing a significant drop post-2020 [14][15]. Section 2: Structural Differentiation in Corporate Loans - Corporate loans have shown structural differentiation across industries, with infrastructure loans being the largest in scale and experiencing less volatility compared to manufacturing and commercial services, which have seen significant growth since 2020 [2][28]. - The report notes that the credit growth in the manufacturing sector is closely linked to policy measures aimed at stabilizing credit and market conditions [32][33]. Section 3: Factors Influencing Overall Credit Growth - The long-term impact of industrial structure on credit demand is emphasized, with a notable decline in credit growth as the service sector's share of GDP increases [46]. - The report also discusses the influence of inventory cycles on credit fluctuations, noting a weakening relationship between inventory cycles and credit growth since 2017 [50]. - Policy factors, such as the debt replacement policy, have temporarily suppressed loan growth, but the report anticipates a recovery in credit growth as these effects diminish [55][57]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banking ETFs, such as the招商中证银行 AH 价格优选 ETF and 华宝中证银行 ETF, based on their valuation levels and concentration in the banking sector [5][57].