宏观策略研究海外宏观周报（2026年第11期）：中东战局长期化，全球资产大变局-20260316

Group 1 - The ongoing Middle East conflict is evolving towards a prolonged and expanded situation, posing the most severe energy crisis risk since the 1970s, impacting global markets significantly [5][11][16] - The international oil prices have surged back above $100, leading to widespread declines in global stock markets and bond markets, while gold prices are temporarily suppressed due to strong oil dollar pressures [11][16] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation, with a downward revision of Q4 2025 GDP from an initial 1.4% to 0.7%, indicating weakening consumer spending and investment contributions [12][21] Group 2 - Inflation pressures are rising, with January's PCE core price index increasing, and February's CPI barely meeting expectations, indicating potential risks from non-core inflation sources such as energy and food prices [13][27][29] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is becoming uncontrollable, with the U.S. losing control over ceasefire negotiations and both sides expanding their attack targets, including non-military infrastructure [15][16] - Global energy crisis risks are increasing, leading to significant changes in global asset dynamics, with energy-importing countries facing more pressure while energy-exporting countries may benefit [16]