《农产品》日报-20260316

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Soybean oil may still have potential upside due to the US biodiesel policy, and Dalian soybean oil may continue to rise after breaking through 8,400 [1]. - Palm oil may face downward pressure as the MPOB report is released and concerns about production growth in March increase [1]. - Rapeseed oil futures may be supported by the escalation of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories [1]. Cotton - US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation pattern, and domestic cotton prices may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with strong long - term demand from spinning mills [2]. Sugar - The international sugar price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction in India's production and the decrease in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. Domestic sugar prices are supported by policy expectations and the overall strength of commodities, but the weak sales data in February and the significant increase in inventory may limit the upside [3]. Red Dates - The red date market in the 25/26 production season still has an oversupply situation, with slow inventory reduction. The cost of warehouse receipts supports the futures price [4]. Apples - The apple futures price has fallen from its high due to the cooling market sentiment. The spot market shows a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern, and the low inventory in cold storage supports the futures price [6]. Corn - In the short term, the increase in corn sales and the substitution of wheat may put pressure on corn prices, but the low inventory of downstream enterprises and the need for replenishment will support prices, and the market will remain in a high - level consolidation [9]. Meal - The US soybean price is supported by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, biodiesel expectations, and China's procurement expectations. The domestic meal basis has strengthened, and the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation [11]. Pigs - The large - scale slaughter of large pigs, the weak demand in the off - season, and the low enthusiasm for secondary fattening may lead to the futures and spot prices continuing to bottom out [14]. Eggs - In the short term, the supply of eggs may decline slightly, and the demand may improve slightly with the approach of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The egg price is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [16]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On March 13, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.45% to 8,990, the futures price of Y2605 increased by 0.67% to 8,690, and the basis of Y2605 decreased by 5.66% [1]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The US soybean oil futures were supported by rising crude oil prices and optimistic biofuel demand. The palm oil was affected by weak exports and potential production growth in March. Rapeseed oil was affected by the war in the Middle East and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories [1]. Cotton - Price Changes: On March 16, the futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.64% to 15,415, and the price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton at the factory increased by 0.19% to 16,704 [2]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The USDA balance sheet adjusted global production and consumption. The domestic market was affected by the issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas, and spinning mills' demand for cotton was strong in the long term [2]. Sugar - Price Changes: On March 16, the futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.57% to 5,447, and the spot price in Nanning increased by 0.37% to 5,490 [3]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The expected reduction in India's production and the decrease in Brazil's sugar - making ratio supported the international sugar price. The domestic sugar market was affected by policy expectations and weak sales data in February [3]. Red Dates - Price Changes: On March 16, the futures price of red dates 2605 increased by 0.17% to 9,095, and the spot price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates remained unchanged at 9,210 [4]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The red date market in the 25/26 production season had an oversupply situation, with slow inventory reduction [4]. Apples - Price Changes: On March 16, the futures price of apple 2605 increased by 0.14% to 9,998, and the basis decreased by 6.35% to - 1,525 [6]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The apple spot market showed a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern, and the inventory in cold storage decreased, which supported the futures price [6]. Corn - Price Changes: On March 16, the basis of corn increased by 41.67% to 34, and the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.42% to 2,386 [9]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The supply of corn in the Northeast increased, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises was affected by wheat substitution. Policy factors also had an impact on the market [9]. Meal - Price Changes: On March 16, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 2.44% to 3,360, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 2.42% to 3,128 [11]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The US soybean price was supported by multiple factors, and the domestic meal basis strengthened. The market was also affected by factors such as oil mill shutdowns and import costs [11]. Pigs - Price Changes: On March 16, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 0.18% to 11,150, and the spot price in Henan increased by 1% to 10,150 [14]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The large - scale slaughter of large pigs, weak demand in the off - season, and low enthusiasm for secondary fattening affected the market [14]. Eggs - Price Changes: On March 16, the futures price of egg 04 increased by 0.12% to 3,275, and the spot price of eggs in the producing area decreased by 0.58% to 3.10 [16]. - Supply and Demand Factors: The supply of eggs may decline slightly due to factors such as molting and high prices of culled chickens. The demand may improve slightly with the approach of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [16].