瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and the production schedules of tire enterprises have basically returned to normal levels, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is still facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in the short term. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,350 - 14,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 85 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,495 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 175 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, with an increase of 55 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,375 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 134,869 lots, with a decrease of 5,436 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 64,390 lots, with a decrease of 3,283 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 46,283 lots, with an increase of 3,095 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,938 lots, with an increase of 256 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 120,800 tons, with a decrease of 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,291 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,750 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 16,900 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,010 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 230 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 15,800 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 120 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 255 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,215 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,801 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 232 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 306 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 407 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber flakes was 72.57 Thai baht/kg, with a decrease of 0.55 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber sheets was 67.85 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.15 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 71 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.4 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 13 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, with an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, with an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, with an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, with an increase of 3.68 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 43.91 days, with a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.84 days, with an increase of 0.74 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, with a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, with an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.3%, with an increase of 0.55 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.17%, with an increase of 0.52 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 30.28%, with a decrease of 2.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 30.27%, with a decrease of 2.07 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 units, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The inventory in the bonded area was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the inventory in general trade was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81% [2]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].