瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of short - term cotton prices is expected to remain unchanged as the domestic textile demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" season is slowly starting, spinning mills are resuming production, and textile and clothing exports have increased significantly in the first two months of 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 15,480 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 214,086 hands, up 3,748 hands; main contract cotton positions are 711,934 hands, down 13,387 hands; cotton warehouse receipts are 12,495, down 11; cotton price index CCIndex:3128B is 16,884 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 21,485 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 1,284 hands, up 39 hands; main contract cotton yarn positions are 13,725 hands, down 524 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 319, down 1; pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count price index is 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index FCIndexM:1% tariff is 12,782 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax is 13,840 yuan/ton; imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count arrival price is 22,312 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count is 23,811 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,116 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 861 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 5,788.7 thousand tons, up 4 thousand tons [2] - Cotton import volume is 180 thousand tons, up 60 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 170 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; imported cotton profit is 3,044 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 21.71 days, down 3.41 days; grey fabric inventory days are 33.13 days, down 0.63 days [2] - Cloth output is 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; yarn output is 2.132 million tons, up 93 thousand tons [2] - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount is 13,412,412 thousand US dollars, up 1,818,726 thousand US dollars; textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount is 12,579,603 thousand US dollars, up 303,870 thousand US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 21.8%, down 1.04%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 21.85%, down 0.99% [2] - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 15.06%, up 0.3%; 60 - day historical volatility is 14.06%, up 0.16% [2] Industry News - Brazil's IBGE expects the 2026 cotton planting area to be 2.020398 million hectares, up 0.5% from last month's forecast and down 5.8% from last year; the seed cotton output is estimated to be 8.838419 million tons, up 0.5% from last month's forecast and down 10.5% from last year [2] - According to the USDA report, in the week ending March 5, 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales increased by 253,200 bales, up 68% from the previous week and down 8% from the four - week average; export shipments were 370,100 bales, up 31% from the previous week and up 77% from the four - week average [2]