沪铜产业日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of increasing supply and stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is below the 0 - axis and the green column is converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 99,720 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,742 dollars/ton, down 38.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 90 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 193,339 lots, up 2,428 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 83,401 lots, up 82 lots. The LME copper inventory is 311,825 tons, down 525 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 433,458 tons, up 8,313 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 43,125 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 322,998 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 591,645 short tons, down 598 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 99,180 yuan/ton, down 1,335 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 99,335 yuan/ton, down 1,280 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 540 yuan/ton, down 745 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 102.7 dollars/ton, down 0.59 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 60.39 dollars/kiloton, down 4.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 89,660 yuan/metal ton, down 1,240 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 90,360 yuan/metal ton, down 1,240 yuan. The southern processing fee of blister copper is 2,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the northern processing fee of blister copper is 1,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 315,793.95 tons, down 124,206.05 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 67,890 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper is 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 961.2 billion yuan, down 731.7614 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.29%, down 0.17%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 33.28%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 23.9%, up 0.0294; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.3, down 0.0723 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January to February this year, high - frequency data such as consumption and investment have rebounded. Commodity consumption and service consumption have increased by 5.7% and 1.1% year - on - year respectively. Some investment physical workload indicators such as the construction machinery start - up rate have improved significantly, and the number of capital investment events in cutting - edge fields has increased significantly year - on - year [2] - The average retail price of passenger cars rose from 165,000 yuan in 2021 to 184,000 yuan in 2024, dropped to 170,000 yuan in 2025, and rose to 180,000 yuan in February 2026, up 15,000 yuan year - on - year [2] - The "14th Five - Year Plan" outline proposes to give full play to the role of special additional deduction policies and increase the deduction of personal income tax. It is expected that the special additional deduction standard for personal income tax may be increased in the next five years, and the special additional deduction may be optimized for promoting fertility [2] - From January to February, the State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment totaled 75.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 80.6% [2] - In the United States, the core PCE in January rose 3.1% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024, and the month - on - month increase remained at 0.4%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting, and if inflation pressure persists, the time window for resuming interest rate cuts may be further postponed [2]